Effective Altruism Forum Logo
Effective Altruism Forum
Topics
Effective Altruism Forum Logo
EA Forum

Login
Sign Up

Samotsvety Forecasting

EditHistory
Discussion (0)
EditHistory
Discussion (0)
Samotsvety Forecasting
Related entries
Random Topic
Contributors
4elifland
2Lizka
Parent Topic: Forecasting & estimation

Samotsvety Forecasting is a forecasting group started primarily by Misha Yagudin, Nuño Sempere, and Eli Lifland. Their track record can be found here.

...

(Read more)

Posts tagged Samotsvety Forecasting

Relevance
262
Samotsvety Nuclear Risk update October 2022
NunoSempere
NunoSempere, Misha_Yagudin+ 0 more
· 8mo ago · 19m read
52
4
52
4
112
Update to Samotsvety AGI timelines
Misha_Yagudin
Misha_Yagudin, JonathanMann, NunoSempere+ 0 more
· 4mo ago · 4m read
9
3
9
3
37
Forecasts on Moore v Harper from Samotsvety
gregjustice
gregjustice+ 0 more
· 3mo ago · 33m read
1
3
1
3
432
My highly personal skepticism braindump on existential risk from artificial intelligence.
NunoSempere
NunoSempere+ 0 more
· 4mo ago · 17m read
115
2
115
2
351
My take on What We Owe the Future
elifland
elifland+ 0 more
· 9mo ago · 31m read
51
2
51
2
170
Samotsvety's AI risk forecasts
elifland
elifland, Misha_Yagudin+ 0 more
· 9mo ago · 4m read
30
2
30
2
155
Samotsvety Nuclear Risk Forecasts — March 2022
NunoSempere
NunoSempere, Misha_Yagudin, elifland+ 0 more
· 1y ago · 6m read
54
2
54
2
128
Nuclear Expert Comment on Samotsvety Nuclear Risk Forecast
Jhrosenberg
Jhrosenberg+ 0 more
· 1y ago · 19m read
13
2
13
2
74
Creating a database for base rates
nikos
nikos+ 0 more
· 6mo ago · 4m read
7
2
7
2
48
Eli Lifland on Navigating the AI Alignment Landscape
Ozzie Gooen
Ozzie Gooen, elifland+ 0 more
· 4mo ago · 37m read
9
2
9
2
Add posts