I agree that the OP is too confident/strongly worded, but IMO this

which is more than enough to justify EA efforts here. 

could be dangerously wrong. As long as AI safety consumes resources that might have counterfactually gone to e.g. nuclear disarmament, stronger international relations, it might well be harmful in expectation.

This is doubly true for warlike AI 'safety' strategies like Aschenbrenner's call to intentionally arms race China, Hendrycks, Schmidt and Wang's call to 'sabotage' countries that cross some ill-defined threshold, and Yudkowsky calling for airstrikes on data centres. I think such 'AI safety' efforts are very likely increasing existential risk.

Well handled, Peter! I'm curious how much of that conversation was organic, how much scripted or at least telegraphed in advance?

I'm warming to CoGi

That makes some sense, but leaves me with questions like

• Which projects were home runs, and how did you tell that a) they were successful at achieving their goals and b) that their goals were valuable?
• Which projects were failures that you feel were justifiable given your knowledge state at the time?
• What do these past projects demonstrate about the team's competence to work on future projects?
• What and how was the budget allocated to these projects, and do you expect future projects projects to have structurally similar budgets?
• Are there any other analogies you could draw between past and possible future projects that would enable us update on the latter's probability of success?

MIRI is hardly unique even in the EA/rat space in having special projects - Rethink Priorities, for e.g., seem to be very fluid in what they work on; Founders Pledge and Longview are necessarily driven to some degree by the interests of their major donors; Clean Air Task force have run many different political campaigns, each seemingly unlike the previous ones in many ways; ALLFED are almost unique in their space, so have huge variance in the projects they work on; and there are many more with comparable flexibility. 

And many EA organisations in the space that don't explicitly have such a strategy have nonetheless pivoted after learning of a key opportunity in their field, or realising an existing strategy was failing. 

In order to receive funds - at least from effectiveness-minded funders - all these orgs have to put a certain amount of effort into answering questions like those above.

And ok, you say you're not claiming to be entitled to dollars, but it still seems reasonable to ask why a rational funder should donate to MIRI over e.g. any of the above organisations - and to hope that MIRI has some concrete answers.

IMO it would help to see a concrete list of MIRI's outputs and budget for the last several years. My understanding is that MIRI has intentionally withheld most of its work from the public eye for fear of infohazards, which might be reasonable for soliciting funding from large private donors but seems like a poor strategy for raising substantial public money, both prudentially and epistemically. 

If there are particular projects you think are too dangerous to describe, it would still help to give a sense of what the others were, a cost breakdown for those, anything you can say about the more dangerous ones (e.g. number of work hours that went into them, what class of project they were, whether they're still live, any downstream effect you can point to, and so on).

Might be confusing with SoGive.

Should our EA residential program prioritize structured programming or open-ended residencies?

You can always host structured programs, perhaps on a regular cycle, but doing so to the exclusion of open-ended residencies seems to be giving up much of the counterfactual value the hotel provided. It seems like a strong overcommitment to a concern about AI doom in the next low-single-digit years, which remains (rightly IMO) a niche belief even in the EA world, despite heavy selection within the community for it.

Having said that, to some degree it sounds like you'll need to follow the funding, and prioritise keeping operations running. If that funding is likely to be conditional on a short-term AI safety focus then you can always shift focus if the world doesn't end in 2027 - though I would strive to avoid being long-term locked into that particular view.

[ETA] I'm not sure the poll is going to give you that meaningful results. I'm at approx the opposite end of it from @Chris Leong, but his answer sounds largely consistent with mine, primarily with a different emotional focus.

Thanks for the extensive reply! Thoughts in order:

I would also note that #3 could be much worse than #2 if #3 entails spreading wild animal suffering.

I think this is fair, though if we're not fixing that issue then it seems problematic for any pro- longtermism view, since it implies the ideal outcome is probably destroying the biosphere. Fwiw I also find it hard to imagine humans populating the universe with anything resembling 'wild animals', given the level of control we'd have in such scenarios, and our incentives to exert it. That's not to say we couldn't wind up with something much worse though (planetwide factory farms, or some digital fear-driven economy adjacent to Hanson's Age of Em)

I'm having a hard time wrapping my head around what the "1 unit of extinction" equation is supposed to represent.

It's whatever the cost in expected future value extinction today would be. The cost can be negative if wild-animal-suffering proliferates, and some trajectory changes could have a negative cost of more than 1 UoEs if they make the potential future more than twice as good, and vice versa (a positive cost of more than 1 UoE if they make the future expectation negative from positive).

But in most cases I think its use is to describe non-extinction catastrophes as having a cost C such that 0 < C < 1UoE.

the parable of the apple tree is more about P(recovery) than it is about P(flourishing|recovery)

Good point. I might write a v2 of this essay at some stage, and I'll try and think of a way to fix that if so.

"Resources get used up, so getting back to a level of technology the 2nd time is harder than the 1st time."
...
"A higher probability of catastrophe means there's a higher chance that civilization keeps getting set back by catastrophes without ever expanding to the stars."

I'm not sure I follow your confusion here, unless it's a restatement of what you wrote in the previous bullet. The latter statement, if I understand it accurately is closer to my primary thesis. The first statement could be true if 

a) Recovery is hard; or

b) Developing technology beyond 'recovery' is hard

I don't have a strong view on a), except that it worries me that so many people who've looked into it think it could be very hard, yet x-riskers still seem to write it off as trivial on long timelines without much argument.

b) is roughly a subset of my thesis, though one could believe the main source of friction increase would come when society runs out of technological information from previous civilisations.

I'm not sure if I'm clearing anything up here...

"we might still have a greater expected loss of value from those catastrophes" - This seems unlikely to me, but I'd like to see some explicit modeling.

So would I, though modelling it sensibly is extremely hard. My previous sequence's model was too simple to capture this question, despite being probably too complicated for what most people would consider practical use. To answer comparative value loss, you need to look at at least:

• Risk per year of non-AI catastrophes of various magnitudes
• Difficulty of recovery from other catastrophes
• Difficulty of flourishing given recovery from other catastrophes
• Risk per year of AI catastrophes of various magnitudes
• Effect of AI-catastrophe risk reduction on other catastrophes? E.g. does benign AI basically lock in a secure future, or would we retain the capacity and willingness to launch powerful weapons at each other?
• How likely is it that AI outcome is largely predetermined by, such that developing benign AI once would be strong evidence that if society subsequently collapsed and developed it again, it would be benign again?
• The long-term nature of AI catastrophic risk. Is it a one-and-done problem if it goes well? Or does making a non-omnicidal AI just give us some breathing space until we create its successor, at which point we have to solve the problem all over again?
• Effect of other catastrophe risk reduction on AI-catastrophe. E.g. does reducing global nuclear arsenals meaningfully reduce the risk that AI goes horribly wrong by accident? Or do we think most of the threat is from AI that deliberatively plans our destruction, and is smart enough not to need existing weaponry?
• The long-term moral status of AI. Is a world where it replaces us as good or better than a world where we stick around on reasonable value systems?
• Expected changes to human-descendant values given flourishing after other catastrophes

My old model didn't have much to say on any beyond the first three of these considerations.

Though if we return to the much simpler model and handwave a bit, if we suppose that annual non-extinction catastrophic risk is between 1 and 2%, then 10-20 year risk is between 20 and 35%. If we also suppose that chances of flourishing after collapse drop by 10 or more %, that puts it in the realm of 'substantially bigger threat than the more conservative AI x-riskers view AI as, substantially smaller than the most pessimistic views of AI x-risk'.

It could be somewhat more important either if chances of flourishing after collapse drop by substantially more (as I think they do), and much more important if we could persistently reduce catastrophic risk that persist for beyond the 10-20-year period (e.g. by moving towards stable global governance or at least substantially reducing nuclear arsenals).

Very helpful, thanks! A couple of thoughts:

• EA grantmaking appears on a steady downward trend since 2022 / FTX.

It looks like this is driven entirely by Givewell/global health and development reduction, and that actually the other fields have been stable or even expanding.

Also, in an ideal world we'd see funding from Longview and Founders Pledge. I also gather there's a new influx of money into the effective animal welfare space from some other funder, though I don't know their name.