All of Emerson Spartz's Comments + Replies

@Ben Pace  Can you please add at the top of the post "Nonlinear disputes at least 85 of the claims in this post and intends to publish a detailed point-by-point response.

They also published this short update giving an example of the kind of evidence they plan to demonstrate."

We keep hearing from people who don't know this. Our comments get buried, so they think your summary at the bottom contains the entirety of our response, though it is just the tip of the iceberg. As a result, they think your post marks the end of the story, and not the opening cha... (read more)

I've made an edit at the top.

I look forward to reading your point-by-point response. I suspect you will convince me that some of the events described in this post were characterized inaccurately, in ways that are unflattering to Nonlinear. However, I think it is very unlikely you will convince me that Nonlinear didn't screw up in several big, important ways, causing significant harm in the process (for reasons along these lines). 

I would thus strongly encourage you to also think about what mistakes Nonlinear made, and what things it is worth apologizing for. I think this would be... (read more)

Kat just added context below, but I'll also note that the 'transport drugs across a country border' story is wildly distorted and we will provide evidence in the forthcoming post that we're working hard on.

Thanks for updating this! This points at something that concerned me about the structure of the original post - Alice or Chloe accuse me of something, but (in the event it was actually covered in my one conversation with Ben) my response to it (or, rather, Ben's paraphrase) might only be included 8,000 words later, and still likely missing important context I would want to add.

I really respect that even in the middle of all this you (and other members of the LW team) still team leave comments like these. 

I think serious mistakes were made in how this situation was handled but I have never doubted that you guys are trying your best to help the community, and comments like this are proof of that.

Thanks for doing this, Nathan! I'm finding these results interesting and informative and I expect this to elevate to the discourse.

I agree that if it were just a few disputed claims that would be a a reasonable thing to do, there are so many. And there is so much nuance.

Here is one example, however. This took us hours to prepare, just to rebut a single false claim:

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/5pksH3SbQzaniX96b/a-quick-update-from-nonlinear

Elityre
7mo22
14
4
1
1

Crostposted from LessWong (link)

Maybe I'm missing something, but it seems like it should take less than an hour to read the post, make a note of every claim that's not true, and then post that list of false claims, even if it would take many days to collect all the evidence that shows those points are false.

I imagine that would be helpful for you, because readers are much more likely to reserve judgement if you listed which specific things are false. 

Personally, I could look over that list and say "oh yeah, number 8 [or whatever] is cruxy for me. If t... (read more)

Ruby
7mo11
7
10

I would think you could go through the post and list out 50 bullet points of what you plan to contest in a couple of hours.

I find the idea of doing that absolutely awful and I've never done anything like that. Unfortunately, it's a lie there is no possibility of defending myself from, since it's hearsay from an anonymous source.

I can tell you that someone was quite actively scared of you doing something like this, and believed you to have said it to them. I wasn't there myself so I cannot confirm whether it's a mishearing or whatever.

There's a broader question that I am often confused about regarding whether it's good or bad to think carefully about how to really deceive someone, or really hurt someone, even if it's motivated defensively. Then people can be unsure about the boundaries of whether you'll use it against them. If someone were to tell you that they know general skills... (read more)

To clarify, do you mean you have never asked/recruited someone to stalk, intimidate, or harass someone else, or do you mean you have never boasted about it?

It was not remotely enough time to actually rebut all of the false claims and we told him so. We assumed that would be the first of many calls - it would take at least a week to clear things up - and then he just surprised us by posting.

and then he just surprised us by posting.

Judging from the email in this comment, it seems like you were aware that Ben intended to post some time before the post appeared on the Forum and LW, which seemingly contradicts what you are saying here.

Ruby
7mo30
20
9
2

My guess is it was enough time to say which claims you objected to and sketch out the kind of evidence you planned to bring. And Ben judged that your response didn't indicate you were going to bring anything that would change his mind enough that the info he had was worth sharing. E.g. you seemed to focus on showing that Alice couldn't be trusted, but Ben felt that this would not refute enough of the other info he had collected / the kinds of refutation (e.g. only a $50 for driving without a license, she brought back illegal substances anyway) were not com... (read more)

This was twisted to make me seem like a villain. I recommended it as a book specifically to read to be able to defend against unethical people who use those tactics offensively - Defense Against the Dark Arts.

My comment was still when I was mid reading OP. Earlier in the essay there's an account of the Adorian Deck situation, then the excerpts from the book, which is as far as I got before I wrote this comment. Later in OP does the case for that Emerson is interested in literature like this for DADA reasons become clearer and defensible

For commenting before I got to the end of the post, I apologize. 

-1
David Mathers
7mo
'use those tactics offensively'  Did you intend to imply it's sometimes okay to use these tactics defensively, and you should learn how to do so? 

Yes, that is incorrect. One of many such factual inaccuracies and why we told Ben to give us a week. The exact date is not simple to explain, since she gradually began working with us, but we will clarify ASAP.

2
IrenaK
8mo
I can't speak for Elliot but happy to help you dig that hole for yourself. Did she eat on the 15th? Or rather, did any of you help her eat proper nutritious meals that are appropriate for a sick vegan? On the 15, or the 16?  Again, it's rediculous to keep discussing this as it seems not to be a crux for people but it's so revealing that you think you are in the right here. 

On December 15, as your screenshots seem to illustrate that you were not able to provide her hot (vegan) food, despite >2 hours of text messaging with both Kat and Drew.

I appreciate your willingness to update if we provide sufficient evidence to do so!

The reason we urge everyone to withhold judgment is because even what currently look like "uncontested/incontestable claims" are, in fact, very much contestable.

For example: "(Kat's text screenshotted above is pretty blatant here)." 

I agree that it does indeed look blatant here. But when you see the full context - the parts Alice conspicuously did not include - the meaning will change radically, to the point where you will likely question Alice's other claims and 'evidence'.

I concur with David. Irrespective of the circumstances, the threat is unmistakably apparent. It appears that thus far, both of you have issued threats to individuals, either to tarnish their reputation or to initiate legal action against them. Regrettably, these actions are not enhancing your own reputation. In fact, they are casting a shadow of suspicion upon you.

The problem with Kat’s text is that it’s a very thinly veiled threat to end someone’s career in an attempt to control Nonlinear’s image. There is no context that justifies such a threat.

Could be! I might end up with egg on my face here, in which case I will do my best to admit it. That said, my most important claim is my last: if you wanted me and others to truly withhold judgement, you really shouldn't have threatened to sue.

For me personally, the full email appears worse in full than summarized.  

If you can share (publicly or privately) strong evidence contradicting "claims [...] that wildly distort the true story" (emphasis mine), I pre-commit to signal boosting.

For what it's worth, I wouldn't be surprised if you do have strong counter-evidence to some claims (given the number of claims made, the ease with which things can be lost in translation, your writing this email, etc.). But, as of right now, I would be surprised if my understanding of the important stuff -- roughly, the items covered in Ben's epistemic state and the crossing of red lines -... (read more)

It is very difficult for people to change their minds later, and most people assume that if you’re on trial, you must be guilty, which is why judges remind juries about “innocent before proven guilty”. 

This is one of the foundations of our legal system, something we learned over thousands of years of trying to get better at justice. You’re just assuming I’m guilty and saying that justifies not giving me a chance to present my evidence.

Trials are public as well. Indeed our justice system generally doesn't have secret courts, so I am not sure what ... (read more)

This is interesting and useful, thanks for doing it!

I'm finding these surveys useful, this one in particular - thanks for doing them!

1
Jamie Elsey
10mo
Thanks Emerson, great that people are getting some value out of them

Sadly, this feature turned out to be quite the technical challenge.

7
Kat Woods
11mo
Yeah. We do say at the beginning of every episode the title, author, and where to find it, and it's in the show notes, but not a link.  It does have a link on the sub-channels on Spotify, because for some weird arcane technical reasons, that was fine. 

Sanjay, I just realized you were the top comment, and now I notice that I feel confused, because your comment directly inspired me to express my views in a tone that was more opinionated and less-hedgy.

I appreciate - no, I *love* - EA's truth seeking culture but I wish it were more OK to add a bit of Gryffindor to balance out the Ravenclaw.

Thanks for the feedback. I tried to do both. I think the doomerism levels are so intense right now and need to be balanced out with a bit of inspiration.

I worry that the doomer levels are so high EAs will be frozen into inaction and non-EAs will take over from here. This is the default outcome, I think.

3
Evan_Gaensbauer
1y
On one hand, as I got at in this comment, I'm more ambivalent than you about whether it'd be worse for non-EAs to take more control over the trajectory on AI alignment.  On the other hand, one reason why I'm ambivalent about effective altruists (or rationalists) retaining that level is control is that I'm afraid that the doomer-ism may become an endemic or terminal disease for the EA community. AI alignment might be refreshed by many of those effective altruists currently staffing the field being replaced. So, thank you for pointing that out too. I expressed a similar sentiment in this comment, though I was more specific because I felt it was important to explain just how bad the doomer-ism has been getting.

Going to say something seemingly-unpopular in a tone that usually gets downvoted but I think needs to be said anyway:

This stat is why I still have hope: 100,000 capabilities researchers vs 300 alignment researchers.

Humanity has not tried to solve alignment yet.

There's no cavalry coming - we are the cavalry. 

I am sympathetic to fears of a new alignment researchers being net negative, and I think plausibly the entire field has, so far, been net negative, but guys, there are 100,000 capabilities researchers now! One more is a drop in the bucket.

If you're... (read more)

3
Evan_Gaensbauer
1y
It's ambiguous who this "we" is. It obscures the fact there are overlapping and distinct communities among AI alignment as an umbrella movement. There have also been increasing concerns that a couple of those communities serving as nodes in that network, namely rationality and effective altruism, are becoming more trouble than they're worth. This has been coming from effective altruists and rationalists themselves. I'm aware of, and have been part of, increasingly frequent conversations that AI safety and alignment, as a movement/community/whatever, shouldn't just "divorce" from EA or rationality, but can and should become more autonomous and independent from them.  What that implies for 'the cavalry' is, first, that much of the standing calvary is more trouble than it's worth. It might be prudent to discard and dismiss much of the existing cavalry.  Second, the AI safety/alignment community gaining more control over its own trajectory may provide an opportunity to rebuild the cavalry, for the better. AI alignment as a field could become more attractive to those who find it offputting, at this point, understandably, because of its association with EA and the rationality community.  AI safety and AI alignment, freed of the baggage EA and rationality, could bring in fresh ranks to the cavalry to replace those standing ranks still causing so many problems.

My gut reaction when reading this comment:

This comment looks like it's written in an attempt to "be inspirational", not an attempt to share a useful insight, or ask a question.

I hope this doesn't sound unkind. I recognise that there can be value in being inspirational, but it's not what I'm looking for when I'm reading these comments.

As a mid-career EA, I strongly agree with this.

Great idea! Would love to help you with this - I'm both an entrepreneur, a history nerd (1,000+ books) and am very interested in AI governance. 

Let me know: emersonspartz@nonlinear.org or Twitter DM @EmersonSpartz

They reached out to me. Most (all?) of them saw me speak somewhere else.

Thanks for sharing! If I were only interested in subscribing to 1-4, which would you recommend?

2
Sofya Lebedeva
1y
That depends on your primary interest in biosecurity. If it is more policy-oriented then maybe the Johns Hopkins or the BWC ones. If you are more interested in epidemiology then maybe the Pandora Report? If you are more interested in technological developments then newsletters 13-15 might be a better fit. These are just loose suggestions. 

Lots of potential here! I've given 6 TEDx talks and would love to be helpful for anyone pursuing this  - feel free to reach out.

2
Alexandra Bos
1y
Awesome, sounds like you have cracked the code :)   This makes me wonder: how did you get your way into 6 TEDx line-ups? Did you reach out to organizers as I described in the post or did you take some different approach?

I agree and will use this opportunity to re-share some tips for increasing readability. I used to manage teams of writers/editors and here are some ideas we found useful:

To remove fluff, imagine someone is paying you $1,000 for every word you remove.  Our writers typically could cut 20-50% with minimal loss of information.

Long sentences are hard to read, so try to change your commas into periods. 

Long paragraphs are hard to read, so try to break each paragraph into 2-3 sentences.

Most people just skim, and some of your ideas are much more important than others, so bold/italicize your important points.

This post has some additional helpful tips, in particular having a summary/putting key points up front.

Love this! I used to manage teams of writers/editors and here are some ideas we found useful for increasing readability:

To remove fluff, imagine someone is paying you $1,000 for every word you remove.  Our writers typically could cut 20-50% with minimal loss of information.

Long sentences are hard to read, so try to change your commas into periods. 

Long paragraphs are hard to read, so try to break each paragraph into 2-3 sentences.

Most people just skim, and some of your ideas are much more important than others, so bold/italicize your important points.

Agreed - we reached out to some people in the group to see if they wanted to add their listings to the sheet!

We're trying to keep it super informal for now :)

Light touch curation, yes - we'd certainly appreciate a heads up on anything like this!

That depends on the funders! Give enough bounties, I'd expect an optimal bounty distribution to look power law-ish with a few big bounties (>10k-1m?) and many small ones (<10k).

I didn't think about it much - public might be better. I assumed some people would be hesitant to share publicly and I'd get more submissions if private, but I'm not sure if that offsets the creative stimulus of sharing publicly.

2
Mati_Roy
2y
By the way, for the future I would suggest the question format (instead of the post format), so that comments are separated as "answers to the question" and "other" :)
2
Mati_Roy
2y
You could do both -- that's what I'll do if that's okay :) Also, comments can also give you points, ya know! :P
3
Yoav_Ravid
2y
If you mentioned comment as an option I would probably comment instead of sending an email.
  1. I'd guess 80% chance at least one gets funded by Feb 2022.
  2. I want to fund every idea that is good enough and then figure out how to scale the bounty market making process 100x.
  3. 2 from this particular experiment, but I intend to do more experiments like this.

I actually think that's an interesting idea!  I like the idea of using bounties to spur more bounty innovation. I'd love to see more bounties like this - let's try mapping the whole design space.

2
FlorentBerthet
1y
It's been a year, have you explored this? I'm somewhat bullish on testing the idea of an EA bounty platform, and am curious as what others would think.

Shovel ready bounties are preferred but to avoid premature exploitation I'd just like to hear as many ideas as possible at this point.  Some ideas might require back and forth, but that's ok!

Seeing the ideas coming in is already giving me lots of ideas for ways to potentially scale this.