Jobst Heitzig (vodle.it)
Bio
I'm a mathematician working on collective decision making, game theory, formal ethics, international coalition formation, and a lot of stuff related to climate change. Here's my professional profile.
My definition of value :
- I have a wide moral circle (including aliens as long as they can enjoy or suffer life)
- I have a zero time discount rate, i.e., value the future as much as the present
- I am (utility-) risk-averse: I prefer a sure 1 util to a coin toss between 0 and 2 utils
- I am (ex post) inequality-averse: I prefer 2 people to each get 1 util for sure to one getting 0 and one getting 2 for sure
- I am (ex ante) fairness-seeking: I prefer 2 people getting an expected 1 util to one getting an expected 0 and one getting an expected 2.
- Despite all this, I am morally uncertain
- Conditional on all of the above, I also value beauty, consistency, simplicity, complexity, and symmetry
How others can help me
I need help with various aspects of my main project, which is to develop an open-source collective decision app, http://www.vodle.it :
- project and product management
- communication, marketing, social media
- quality control, testing
- translations
- funding
How I can help others
I can help by ...
- providing feedback on ideas
- proofreading and commenting on texts
Posts 11
Comments54
The author is using "we" in several places and maybe not consistently. Sometimes "we" seems to be them and the readers, or them and the EA community, and sometimes it seems to be "the US". Now you are also using an "us" without it being clear (at least to me) who that refers to.
Who do you mean by 'The country with the community of people who have been thinking about this the longest' and what is your positive evidence for the claim that other communities (e.g., certain national intelligence communities) haven't thought about that for at least as long?
"targeting NNs" sounds like work that takes a certain architecture (NNs) as a given rather than work that aims at actively designing a system.
To be more specific: under the proposed taxonomy, where would a project be sorted that designs agents composed of a Bayesian network as a world model and an aspiration-based probabilistic programming algorithm for planning?
Where in your taxonomy does the design of AI systems go – what high-level architecture to use (non-modular? modular with a perception model, world-model, evaluation model, planning model etc.?), what type of function approximators to use for the modules (ANNs? Bayesian networks? something else?), what decision theory to base it on, what algorithms to use to learn the different models occurring in these modules (RL? something else?), how to curate training data, etc.?
Small remark regarding your the metric "* 100% minus the probability that the given technological restraint would have occurred without protests" (let's call the latter probability x): this seems to suggest that given the protests the probability became 100% while before it had been x and that hence the protests raised the probability from x to 100%. But the fact that the event eventually did occur does not mean at all that after the protests it had a probability of 100% of occurring. It could even have had the very same probability of occurring as before the protests, namely x, or even a smaller probability than that, if only x>0.
What you would actually want to compare here is the probability of occurring given no protests (x) and the probability of occurring given protests (which would have to be estimated separately).
In short: your numbers overestimate the influence of protests by an unknown amount.
So we're converging...
One final comment on your argument about odds: In our algorithms, specifying an allowable aspiration includes specifying a desired probability of success that is sufficiently below 100%. This is exactly to avoid the problem of fulfilling the aspiration becoming an optimization problem through the backdoor.
We need to push back on echo bubbles.