Pat Myron

Software Engineer
288 karmaJoined Sep 2021Working (6-15 years)


  • Attended more than three meetings with a local EA group


Replies discouraged future meat consumption offsetting, but I'd like an answer to offset past decades of meat consumption because I just began eliminating that

Unfortunately, climate concerns and animal welfare concerns conflict when debating which animal products are least harmful:

I don't buy that someone can jump on the markets and mess with them. Manifold (or better real money) markets have great incentives against this. I am unaware of any time this has happened in a way that it would in a live prediction market.

Manifold markets hasn't solved longterm market incentives yet:
There are even accounts dedicated to messing with Manifold markets:
Manifold doubled mana loan amounts this month to try to mitigate the longterm market incentive issues on the platform

I invest almost everything and don't keep much in bank accounts, but anyone who does should at least make sure they're banking at competitive rates:

Surprised Animal Charity Evaluators Recommended Charity Fund gives equal amounts to around a dozen charities:
Obviously uncertainty's involved, but a core tenant of EA and charity evaluators is that certain charities are more effective, so Givewell's Top Charities Fund giving different amounts to only a few charities per year makes more sense to me:

The price of the WLD token on is approximately $2.3 as of July 31, 2023

I wouldn't assume this to be stable. Also, verification is currently only available in 18 countries:

Excited to hear which Manifold comments won prizes! Also unclear to me if EU fish advocacy should resolve the EU animal advocacy or the fish advocacy market YES

The commenting prizes incentivized lots of great reasoning sharing rather than silent predictions, and I'm excited to hear which ideas are chosen

For forecasting prizes, requiring currencies benefits those who bet more over those who strictly forecast better. I borrowed hundreds of USD of Manifold's currency to bet more on the tournament:
whereas other tournaments are more strictly based on forecasting:

Also probably could get more traders if Manifold itself highlighted tournaments in a banner/sidebar/notification/email/etc. Expect the markets would not have all had less than 50 traders if more users knew thousands of additional USD were at stake:

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