Albert Pujols hit his 698th career home run tonight, and he graciously encourages fans not to worry about returning baseballs.^[1] Inflation-adjusted, the last 700th career home run baseball sold for over $1M USD^[2] Players average ~3 at-bats per game^[3], leading to ~30% chance Pujols hits at least one HR each game he plays lately: 3 HRs on 33 AB last 10 games, 20 HRs on 146 AB since July 1 (54 games)

Expected revenue from auctioning the ball is now hundreds of thousands per game

Current cheapest outfield ticket prices before fees by city for the rest of their season:

St. Louis: $45 (41k / 45k - avg attendance^[4] / capacity^[5])
San Diego: $30 (37k / 43k)
LA Dodgers: $30 (48k / 56k)
Milwaukee: $10 (31k / 42k)
Pittsburgh: $20 (16k / 38k)

Since the vast majority of seats aren't outfield seats^[6], the expected value for the minority in all the outfield seats still seems like hundreds of thousands per game even after ticket costs, so you should consider them if you don't mind going:

https://www.ocregister.com/2012/01/18/where-you-should-sit-to-catch-an-albert-pujols-home-run-ball/

Other considerations that slightly alter your chances of making a catch:

Pujols got moved up in the hitting lineup for more ABs^[7]
Home run odds vary slightly by stadium^[8]^[9]
Average MLB fan is almost 60 years old^[10]
Go easy on drinks and bring gloves :)

Pat Myron

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