9Giving What We Can 10% pledges by yearPat Myron ๐ธยท2y agoยท1m readPat Myron ๐ธยท2y agoยท1m read33
28Manifold Markets Charity program ending March 1stPat Myron ๐ธยท3y agoยท1m readPat Myron ๐ธยท3y agoยท1m read33
28Americaโs 100 Charities receiving most donationsPat Myron ๐ธยท3y agoยท1m readPat Myron ๐ธยท3y agoยท1m read22
3Any state / local politicians in this community? (state legislators / city council members / etc)Pat Myron ๐ธยท3y agoยท1m readPat Myron ๐ธยท3y agoยท1m read22
56Cardinals baseball tickets currently a cost-effective way to fundraise?Pat Myron ๐ธยท3y agoยท2m readPat Myron ๐ธยท3y agoยท2m read33
Cullen's Quick takesView in threadPat Myron ๐ธ3mo1101federal preemption causes sports betting to expand into states that would otherwise prohibit itIt also expanded access to teenagers while most states that allowed it had restricted it to 21+Reply
Suggestion: Effective Animal Advocacy forumView in threadPat Myron ๐ธ5mo120The FAST Forum has been discontinued:https://fastcommunity.org/discontinuedReply
Introducing the Animal Advocacy Forum โ a space for those involved or interested in Animal Welfare & related topicsView in threadPat Myron ๐ธ5mo310The FAST Forum has been discontinued:https://fastcommunity.org/discontinuedReply
Pat Myron's Quick takesView in threadPat Myron ๐ธ9mo*1110PolicyEffective givingPolicyEffective giving1 moreAs one of the largest single donations ever, Michael and Susan Dell pledged $6.25B to provide 25M American children new investment accounts:https://apnews.com/article/michael-dell-susan-trump-accounts-stock-market-poverty-inequality-7e2615d50a3fc0563109ed0eeb4c41e1Reply
Prediction markets & many experts think authoritarian capture of the US looks distinctly possibleView in threadPat Myron ๐ธ11mo110easier to start and resolve markets, leading to many more marketsleads to lower signal-to-noise ratioand heeding time-value still leads to more (play) capital / pricing powerReply
Prediction markets & many experts think authoritarian capture of the US looks distinctly possibleView in threadPat Myron ๐ธ11mo*210long term market issues [...] conditional marketsConditional markets compound long term issues (assuming they're collateralized): instead of locking capital into a market, that's locking capital into hoping there's a marketPrediction markets can increase capital efficiency by:* pegging interest rates (like adjustable-rate mortgages)* recognizing hedged positions[1][2]* lowering feesReply
Prediction markets & many experts think authoritarian capture of the US looks distinctly possibleView in threadPat Myron ๐ธ11mo*8301More reasons for cautious interpretations:Manifold:* 'mana is purely a play-money and not exchangeable for sweepcash, money, or any other goods and items'Polymarket:* orderbook's actually 2.5% which the interface rounds up to 3%* Polymarket offers 4% variable interest on that (Kalshi went from 4.05% to 3.25% this year)Metaculus:* 500 deaths is closer to previous US standoffs than the US Civil War* Only question of those >3% as of writing only has 33 forecasters* All the histograms have odd tails (somewhat dampened by Metaculus reporting medians):Reply
We don't have evidence that the best charities are over 1000x more cost effective than the averageView in threadPat Myron ๐ธ1y*310Most nonprofit revenue isn't from charitable giving (think healthcare, education, etc):https://taxfoundation.org/blog/501c3-nonprofit-revenue/https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/searchMost American charitable giving was across hundreds of thousands of religious organizations:https://www.philanthropyroundtable.org/magazine/less-god-less-giving/But these organizations receive the most donations:https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/BpEt8DqrcAhKJbtfJ/america-s-100-charities-receiving-most-donationsReply
Break-even analysis of D3, long-chain omega-3, and multivitamin-multimineral supplementationView in threadPat Myron ๐ธ1y210I do not discuss B12I also plan to continue my D3 supplementationDo you think there is evidence that not taking a multivitamin-multimineralThat multivitamin-multimineral contains B12 and D3 btwReply
Break-even analysis of D3, long-chain omega-3, and multivitamin-multimineral supplementationView in threadPat Myron ๐ธ1y*110Still seems reductively worded? Serious deficiencies like B12 impair sustaining any income. I wouldn't risk cognitive health over ~$10/monthReply
It also expanded access to teenagers while most states that allowed it had restricted it to 21+
The FAST Forum has been discontinued:
https://fastcommunity.org/discontinued
The FAST Forum has been discontinued:
https://fastcommunity.org/discontinued
As one of the largest single donations ever, Michael and Susan Dell pledged $6.25B to provide 25M American children new investment accounts:
https://apnews.com/article/michael-dell-susan-trump-accounts-stock-market-poverty-inequality-7e2615d50a3fc0563109ed0eeb4c41e1
leads to lower signal-to-noise ratio
and heeding time-value still leads to more (play) capital / pricing power
Conditional markets compound long term issues (assuming they're collateralized): instead of locking capital into a market, that's locking capital into hoping there's a market
Prediction markets can increase capital efficiency by:
* pegging interest rates (like adjustable-rate mortgages)
* recognizing hedged positions[1][2]
* lowering fees
More reasons for cautious interpretations:
Manifold:
* 'mana is purely a play-money and not exchangeable for sweepcash, money, or any other goods and items'
Polymarket:
* orderbook's actually 2.5% which the interface rounds up to 3%
* Polymarket offers 4% variable interest on that (Kalshi went from 4.05% to 3.25% this year)
Metaculus:
* 500 deaths is closer to previous US standoffs than the US Civil War
* Only question of those >3% as of writing only has 33 forecasters
* All the histograms have odd tails (somewhat dampened by Metaculus reporting medians):
Most nonprofit revenue isn't from charitable giving (think healthcare, education, etc):
https://taxfoundation.org/blog/501c3-nonprofit-revenue/
https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/search
Most American charitable giving was across hundreds of thousands of religious organizations:
https://www.philanthropyroundtable.org/magazine/less-god-less-giving/
But these organizations receive the most donations:
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/BpEt8DqrcAhKJbtfJ/america-s-100-charities-receiving-most-donations
That multivitamin-multimineral contains B12 and D3 btw
Still seems reductively worded? Serious deficiencies like B12 impair sustaining any income. I wouldn't risk cognitive health over ~$10/month