Pat Myron 🔸
Participation1
- Attended more than three meetings with a local EA group
Posts 8
Comments164
As one of the largest single donations ever, Michael and Susan Dell pledged $6.25B to provide 25M American children new investment accounts:
https://apnews.com/article/michael-dell-susan-trump-accounts-stock-market-poverty-inequality-7e2615d50a3fc0563109ed0eeb4c41e1
long term market issues [...] conditional markets
Conditional markets compound long term issues (assuming they're collateralized): instead of locking capital into a market, that's locking capital into hoping there's a market
Prediction markets can increase capital efficiency by:
* pegging interest rates (like adjustable-rate mortgages)
* recognizing hedged positions[1][2]
* lowering fees
More reasons for cautious interpretations:
Manifold:
* 'mana is purely a play-money and not exchangeable for sweepcash, money, or any other goods and items'
Polymarket:
* orderbook's actually 2.5% which the interface rounds up to 3%
* Polymarket offers 4% variable interest on that (Kalshi went from 4.05% to 3.25% this year)
Metaculus:
* 500 deaths is closer to previous US standoffs than the US Civil War
* Only question of those >3% as of writing only has 33 forecasters
* All the histograms have odd tails (somewhat dampened by Metaculus reporting medians):
Most nonprofit revenue isn't from charitable giving (think healthcare, education, etc):
https://taxfoundation.org/blog/501c3-nonprofit-revenue/
https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/search
Most American charitable giving was across hundreds of thousands of religious organizations:
https://www.philanthropyroundtable.org/magazine/less-god-less-giving/
But these organizations receive the most donations:
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/BpEt8DqrcAhKJbtfJ/america-s-100-charities-receiving-most-donations
I do not discuss B12
I also plan to continue my D3 supplementation
Do you think there is evidence that not taking a multivitamin-multimineral
That multivitamin-multimineral contains B12 and D3 btw
It also expanded access to teenagers while most states that allowed it had restricted it to 21+