An existential risk is a risk that threatens the destruction of humanity’s longterm potential (Bostrom 2016; Ord 2020a). Existential risks might include natural risks such as those posed by asteroids or super-volcanoes as well as novel technological risks like mishaps resulting from synthetic biology or artificial intelligence. Experts remain uncertain about the absolute probability of existential risks.

Some existential risks would cause humanity to become extinct if they came about—these are called “extinction risks”. Other risks might stop humanity from flourishing in other ways—a brutal and unending totalitarian regime might permanently damage what is valuable about humanity without causing actual extinction. Alternatively, a smaller scale disaster could undermine industrial civilization, leaving humanity stuck at a significantly smaller population and unable ever to recover technologically.

Philosophers have argued that existential risks are especially important because the long-run future of humanity matters a great deal (Bostrom 2013). Many believe that there is no intrinsic moral difference between the importance of a life today and one in a hundred years. However, there may be many more people in the future than there are now. They argue, therefore, that it is overwhelmingly important to preserve that potential, even if the risks to humanity are small.

One objection to this argument is that people have a special responsibility to other people currently alive that they do not have to people who have not yet been born (Roberts 2015). Another objection is that, although it would in principle be important to manage, the risks are currently so unlikely and poorly understood that existential risk reduction is less cost-effective than work on other promising areas.

Non-extinction existential risks

Although most of the existential risks that get discussed involve human extinction, it may be possible for events or processes to prevent humanity from achieving most of its potential without being made extinct. For example, future technologies might allow an oppressive totalitarian regime to perpetuate itself indefinitely. Alternatively, if space colonization is necessary to realize most of the future value of humanity, a disaster that does not cause human extinction but prevents humanity from developing the technologies required to leave Earth ...

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