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not that I really mind, but why is the author anonymous? it seems like such a tame criticism it's hard to imagine anyone getting upset about it
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Three of the most exciting projects to come out of EA in recent years are, in a vague sense, CEA spinouts:
* Kairos is directly a spinout of CEA and now handles most support for university AI safety groups. Basically everyone I've found who knows them is really excited about what they do
* NEST is an opinionated ideas-fi...
TLDR; To help the effective animal advocacy movement cost-effectively absorb greater amounts of funding in the near future, we are seeking expressions of interest from people who could found a new organization focused on:
* Highly neglected animals: insects, wild animals, shrimp, fish, etc, or
* AI and animals: AI alignment and governance for animal welfare, strategic actions considering transformative AI, AI for wild animals, etc.
* ...
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Hey, thanks for the question! I'm Alex Cohen, a researcher at GiveWell, and wanted to chime in.
We did say we'd include a 25th/75th percentile range on bottom line cost-effectiveness (in addition to the one-way sensitivity checks). We haven't added that yet, and we should. We ran into some issues running the full sensitivity analyses (instead of the one-way sensitivity checks we do have), and we prioritized publishing updated intervention reports and cost-effective analyses without them.
We'll add those percentile ranges to our top charity intervention reports (so the simple cost-effective analyses will also include a bottom line cost-effectiveness 25/75 range, in addition to one-way sensitivity checks) and ensure that new intervention reports/grant pages have them included before publishing. We think it’s worth emphasizing how uncertain our cost-effectiveness estimates are, and this is one way to do that (though it has limitations).
We're still not planning to base our decision-making on this uncertainty in the bottom line cost-effectiveness (like the “Change Our Mind Contest” post recommended) or model uncertainty on every parameter. To defend against the Optimizer's Curse, we prefer our approach of skeptically adjusting our inputs, rather than an all-in adjustment to bottom-line cost-effectiveness. We explain why in the uncertainty post.
Really appreciate you raising this. Sorry this has taken so long, and grateful for the nudge!