My understanding is that the rise and fall of FTX was a positive feedback loop turned negative. When FTX had money, they used it to drive up the price of their own crypocurrency, FTT. One of the biggest holders of FTT was Alameda Research, SBF's hedge fund. They profit nominally from rising FTT, but the only big buyer of FTT is FTX, so how does Alameda turn FTT into cash? It looks like FTX gave Alameda loans on the premise that Alameda's FTT was strong collateral. It's a money printer when times are good: FTX profits on customer transactions and loans to Alameda, and Alameda profits on trades.
But it's an extremely precarious position. If the price of FTT drops, FTX loses money. People get worried about the money they deposited in FTX and try to withdraw. To pay them back, FTX can try to sell FTT coin, but FTT coin is already trading below where FTX bought it. FTX could also try to call back their loans to Alameda, but those loans are collateralized by FTT, so Alameda can't pay. All of a sudden, customers want their money back and FTX can't provide it. FTT, FTX, and Alameda collapse.
That's my current best guess at what happened. We're going to find out a lot more in the weeks to come, but this is the story that's currently being reported. Here's Byrne Hobart's timeline:
November 1, 9:44am ET: Coindesk writes a story on a leaked Alameda balance sheet showing large exposure to FTX's FTT token.
November 4, 5:38am: a Substack post asks if the company is insolvent, and rumors spread over the weekend.
November 6th, 10:47am: Changpeng "CZ" Zhao, CEO of rival exchange Binance, announces plans to sell his FTT tokens.
16 minutes later: Alameda Research's CEO offers to buy them.
November 6th, 6:28pm: Sam Bankman-Fried tweets that the exchange is solvent. Many people remember their Bagehot.
November 7th, 7:38am: SBF reiterates that the exchange is fine. The Bagehot-posting intensifies.
November 8, 6:00am: Tech news sites cover slow withdrawals at FTX.
November 8th, 11:03am: SBF announces that FTX has signed a letter of intent to be acquired by Binance, which has been confirmed by CZ. By this time, total losses based on the positions in the Coindesk report are at least $2.3bn, mostly from FTT depreciation. (Those losses will roughly double in the next few hours as FTT continues to depreciate.)
November 9th: Binance withdraws from deal to acquire FTX.
Byrne speculates that FTX's profitability could be as manufactured as it sounds:
This could have been a completely cynical perpetual motion machine where Alameda makes FTX a better exchange by providing cheap liquidity, and the growth of FTX increases the value of the underlying FTT, giving Alameda more collateral to borrow against for providing more liquidity.
Matt Levine compares it to a bank providing a loan with its own stock as collateral. This is stupid and often illegal because if the loan goes bad, the stock price goes down, making it a double-whammy:
If you go to an investment bank and say “lend me $1 billion, and I will post $2 billion of your stock as collateral,” you are messing with very dark magic and they will say no. The problem with this is that it is wrong-way risk. (It is also, at least sometimes, illegal.) If people start to worry about the investment bank’s financial health, its stock will go down, which means that its collateral will be less valuable, which means that its financial health will get worse, which means that its stock will go down, etc. It is a death spiral. In general it should not be possible to bankrupt an investment bank by shorting its stock. If one of the bank’s main assets is its own stock — is a leveraged bet on its own stock — then it is easy to bankrupt it by shorting its stock.
CZ, CEO of Binance, says enough to help put the pieces together:
Two big lessons:
- Never use a token you created as collateral.
- Don't borrow if you run a crypto business.
Jon Wu has a great thread:
tl;dr
- CZ dumps $FTT
- Alameda faces external margin calls, looks to FTX for liquidity
- FTX depositors have withdrawn; piggy bank is broken
- FTX's assets are loans Alameda can't repay, against real customer liabilities
- FTX in the hole for billions
- CZ buys FTX
If this is what happened, then SBF took an incredible gamble with other people's money and lost big, billions of dollars in customer deposits big. It's a shame for FTX and the EA community.
I think there's a few serious questions here.
There's a huge negative sentiment towards SBF 'playing a white knight' that I've seen on FB/Reddit/HackerNews is leading people to assume EA itself may be fraudulent. Maybe it's water under the bridge within a week? But maybe it impacts future philanthropy and impacted EA groups losing funding lose trust.
I think when doing any sort of dissociating from SBF, there's two errors in opposite directions I would like to see EA avoid:
any responsibility on the part of EA should be very clearly acknowledged. I don't want to get into what sort of responsibility there might be, and I think your questions are a good start. But there's a tendency for corporate PR to want to airbrush responsibility and the movement's long term reputation will win if EA conducts itself with integrity.
for integrity's sake, too, I hope we avoid throwing Sam or anyone else under the bus before the facts are clearly demonstrated. I think you can distance without blaming, and in early stages, that might be the most appropriate action.
I want to acknowledge the challenging time leaders in the space right now must be having. Easy for me to write a list of demands here on a thread, but doubtless more difficult to make the calls. Thoughts are with folks having to make big calls on this right now.
Yes, I agree. I don't mean to throw Sam under the bus here. I'm sure his intentions were from a good place. I do mean that this is probably going to become the first time many people hear about EA and that should be handled in some way. If EA becomes synonymous with Crypto fraud then we could see less support from existing people and it is first thing people see when they're looking into EA (GWWC, EA Funds, etc).
Underlying #1 and #3, there’s the additional question of to what extent EA was motivation for SBF to engage in unethical behaviour.
Sequoia, one of the major investors in FTX, paid a writer to do a lengthy puff piece on SBF in September. EA makes numerous appearances:
https://www.sequoiacap.com/article/sam-bankman-fried-spotlight/
EA will be subject to intense scrutiny if SBF viewed reckless and fraudulent behaviour as execution risk for altruistic goals.
I think there’s two possible next steps:
Be vigilant of what money is being donated to EA - if it comes from grey area fields (and I say this as someone who’s worked in crypto for a few years, albeit I quit the area earlier in the year). Of course this being EA there’s going to be people arguing the money has been moved to more positive uses, but public image is key to have sustainable donations moving on.
Have a piece about the pros of EA and thank SBF/FTX for their donations but be clear that EA doesn’t knowingly accept money obtained in potentially immoral ways. Now there’s a chance this was all above board and FTX got beaten by a competitor in an unregulated sector, which is of course possible! However there’s a lot of contradictory points popping up about 1:1 backing and the trading firm was very close to an exchange… market information to front run I get, but hopefully they didn’t loan users funds via FTT to trade.
Tangential to #2, there’s a scenario where this ends up as a reputational nightmare for EA.
The author that Sequoia paid to write SBF’s puff piece (linked in earlier comment) has already put out a tweet to this effect:
https://twitter.com/AdamcFisher/status/1590466104773992448
My concern at this point is the willingness of MacAskill and other prominent EA’s to condemn SBF. “Wait and see” is often preferred, but there may be permanent damage to EA’s reputation if SBF is not disavowed by EA leadership in due time.
Sadly, I think his having been the second largest donor to the Biden 2020 campaign fund will be a more effective defence. It certainly worked for the people who lost hundreds of billions of Other People's Money in 2008.
seems he has ended up giving more to the democratic party than ea lol
Sequoia pulled that link, here's an archived version.
I don't think that EA's reputation will be tainted that much by this incident.
First, startups are inherently risky; the purpose of a startup is to try out an unproven business model in the hope of making money or providing value for customers. FTX exposed investors to what many observers, including me, consider an unacceptable level of risk, but so did Theranos (which was an outright scam).
Second, risk neutrality as a consequence of utilitarianism is not well understood outside the EA community. It might become more prominent in the discourse soon, but right now journalists are mostly not talking about it.
How exactly do you disassociate SBF from EA? The guy grew up with two utilitarian philosopher parents, explicitly started Alameda on earn to give principles, used EA social connections to do Alameda's first major trades (the yen-denominated BTC arbitrage), and gave a ton of money to EA causes. If he isn't an effective altruist, no one is!
Yeah, that's why I think ben.smith's comment in the same thread here is important. Handling the fallout well requires nuance and some additional degree of self-reflection on the part of EA leaders. (I say "some additional degree" because it's not like people were completely unaware of these risks – see here.) And I think it would be wrong (and too easy) to see Sam as some kind of cartoon villain. It strongly looks as though some actions were far away from "defensible" but I don't for a second doubt that his motivation to do good was sincere, and he got impressively far with it and you can understand how he might have felt increasingly more empowered to act in naive-consequentialist ways after seeing all that success.
(Edit: To be clear, "understand" isn't the same as condone; with enough effort you can maybe also "understand" why the Taliban flew a plane into a building, etc.)
It is important to wait and see what happened in more light. We must not have EA used as a defense of criminal activities, if anything illegal did take place. I don't mean to throw anyone under the bus here, and I don't really think I mean 'disassociate SBF from EA', I mean we should avoid EA becoming associated with Crypto failures because frankly I believe this will be the first introduction many people have to EA.
Let's try avoid this trending meme on Twitter becoming the general conception of EA
https://imgur.com/a/7tYOa7M
And, maybe, this is all water under the bridge in a week and it just goes away.
But EA is, almost certainly, an important part of the story here . It would be very strange to pretend that EA and utilitarian philosophy have nothing to do with why SBF took these risks. It's not exactly some mysterious connection.
It's not a mysterious connection but EA must not become synonymous with Fraud under the guise of 'good'. People should not rob banks to send money to CEA.
Edit: This is a random example, I am not saying Sam robbed a bank!
he probably did rob a bank, actually, insofar as I strongly suspect that Silvergate Capital has some loans outstanding to Alameda that they aren't getting back....
I don't really think FTT is considered a "major coin" - it's new, and only used by this one exchange. Not sure it has much any use at all outside FTX and would be kinda weird to overinvest in as an outsider other than as a bet on FTX itself.
People affected aren't just FTT investors but anyone who used the FTX platform. This is I believe $16B? And, to make matters worse, this money was meant to be held 1:1 but looks like it was loaned out to SBFs trading firm (using FTT) in order to trade. They appear to have minted more FTT in order to make up lost funds (possibly in Q2 when other firms went down). This thread explains a pretty plausible version of events:
https://twitter.com/LucasNuzzi/status/1590122590206824448?t=ZMpzX12eJCqMhXxJgrdLiA
sure, I was mostly just disagreeing with "90% loss of a major coin" - but I suppose you can read that sentence more charitably. But focusing on the inherent value of FTT as the avenue of affecting customers I think is misguided.