Event on Oct 9: Forecasting Nuclear Risk with Rethink Priorities' Michael Aird

by MichaelA2 min read29th Sep 20213 comments

24

Nuclear warfareForecastingRethink PrioritiesMetaculus
Frontpage

This is an announcement for an event on October 9, which you can register for here. The text is copied from the event description page Metaculus made.

A short presentation and Q&A with Rethink Priorities researcher Michael Aird on nuclear risk and how Metaculus forecasts inform his work

About this event

How likely is nuclear conflict in the near- and long-term? What risk does nuclear conflict pose for extreme outcomes that could lead to existential catastrophe? This event is an opportunity to learn about the research and the aggregated community forecasting meant to increase our understanding on these critical questions and to help us reduce their associated risks.

Speaker Michael Aird's work with Rethink Priorities is aimed at informing funders, policymakers, researchers, and other actors regarding the extent to which they should prioritize reducing risks from nuclear weapons, as well as the most effective ways to mitigate these risks.

This event will consist of a short presentation on:

  • Michael's current research
  • How forecasts in the Nuclear Risk forecasting tournament will inform and be incorporated into his research
  • How he expects this to contribute to a more flourishing near- and long-term future

The presentation will be followed by a longer Q&A session that could touch on topics like:

  • How forecasting could be used more frequently and effectively in research and policymaking
  • The importance and potential limitations of forecasting on long-range or catastrophe-related questions

Round 2 of the Nuclear Risk tournament launches next week. For those who have already made forecasts, this event offers a fantastic opportunity to find out how tournament predictions are being put to work on key policy questions. And for those who haven't yet predicted in the tournament, it's a great time to get started.

About Rethink Priorities:

From Rethink Priorities' website: "Rethink Priorities is a research organization that conducts critical research to inform policymakers and major foundations about how to best help people and nonhuman animals in both the present and the long-term future.

Our research spans everything from animal welfare to the threat of nuclear war. We explore neglected but promising areas to improve the world and try to further build the community of researchers working on understanding how to do this most effectively.

We follow the principles of effective altruism, and are dedicated to using our resources to have the greatest impact on the lives of people and animals."

About Metaculus:

At Metaculus, our aim is to improve human decision-making and coordination at scale by increasing analytic capacity, reasoning, and judgment. With the unique capabilities of the Metaculus forecasting platform, our innovative programs, and our long-term partnerships, we enable a range of stakeholders and contributors to engage in a process of collective reasoning, forecasting, and ultimately, more informed action. Via this process, we are fostering a worldwide positive-sum collaboration network that develops and aggregates the most accurate forecasts on topics of global importance, a network that spans across nonprofits, government agencies, and institutions, to individual forecasters, researchers, students, and authors.

This online event is scheduled for October 9th, 2:00PM - 3:00PM ET.

A Zoom link will be added to the page as the event approaches. For now, register a spot, and we’ll look forward to seeing you there!

24

3 comments, sorted by Highlighting new comments since Today at 10:44 PM
New Comment

So, was it good? What did I miss?

I plan to share the recording in some way soon, and will reply again here when I've done so :)

Here are the slides, if you or anyone else is keen to look at them already, though might be better to wait for the recording.