Thanks for sharing - I think it's really important that there are easy to communicate summaries available to share, especially given the pace of rapid advancements that are taking place and the resulting significant gap in comprehension for many who haven't even used/engaged with AI at all. There's a recent Rutger Bregman video that also feels sharable with non technical / non AI focused audiences - but the comments section still highlights how people are using the current (or even are already out of date) status of what AI can achieve, and missing, as you point out, the trend.

Hi George. Thanks for sharing. I am open to bets against short transformative AI (TAI) timelines, or what they supposedly imply, up to 10 k$. Do you see any that we could make that is good for both of us under our own views?

As someone who ruined Greek Easter recently, I strongly relate.

Reading about existential risks, then talking with normal people---it feels like multiverse travel. Most people don't register the danger. Not the immediate risks like climate change or nuclear war. Certainly not AI.

I remember a clip from Cunk on Earth, a British mockumentary. Philomena Cunk, the fictional TV host, asked an expert if it feels comforting that we don't have nuclear weapons anymore. The expert said no---every major power has them. When Cunk realized this is true and how terrible this is, she broke down and cried.

That's the reaction people should have. When someone says "the Earth is getting warmer" or "AI video models are improving," people should cry. Instead they talk about it like it's happening on another planet.

That is the hardest part when I think about these things.