You probably won't successfully build up skills and become capable enough.

This post is absoultely not meaning to upset young aspiring EA people. However, I've seen a lot of EA people thinking "If I build up skills well, I'll be hired in an EA org or enter an influencial non-EA orgs." Holding that view is silimar to "If I have the talent and build up basketball skills well and is hard-working, I'll get into NBA". These are all true, but "if I build up skills well" is a really big if. I'm uncertain, but it seems only 10-20% of people successfully got jobs/grantings in the EA world.  

That'd mean 80-90% of people failed to meet the standard of "a capable/skilled person that's worth paid to do direct work". In x-risks it may be easier to find a direct work job in the non-EA world. However, in a lot of fields, such as animal welfare and s-risks, the marginal contribution in the non-EA world may be significantly lower because the non-EA world don't care about reducing farmed/wild animal suffering or digital suffering.

The point is: I think while working extremely hard to become a capable person, EA people should hold an attitude: "It's probable I'll failed to become capable enough to contribute to direct work meaningfully, and I have to bulld earn to give back-up plan". "If a lot of people failed to build up their skills to be hired in EA world, what makes me thinks I probably would success?"  BTW, Doing earn to give is still valuable(if you can donate over $50,000 a year).

The implication is: If you're making a decision to trade-off between direct work and earn to give(such as to drop out of college/ to attend medical school or not), you shouldn't be optimistic at all on the believe that "I'm going to build up my skills well and contribute effectively in direct-work" unless you already have clear-evidence that you're extremely hard-working and are on the correct path of building skills for years

(Edit: I'm uncertain about my theory and is willing to hear critique, and it seems many people disagree this, but just clicking the disagree doesn't help the world and change my thoughts, I'd love to hear your reasons if you can type down in reply)