microCOVID.org: A tool to estimate COVID risk from common activities

by catherio1 min read29th Aug 202023 comments


This is a linkpost for https://www.microcovid.org/

This is a linkpost for a model and web tool (that I and several friends created) to quantitatively estimate the COVID risk to you from your ordinary daily activities:

This website contains three outputs of our work:

1. a web calculator that you can use to calculate your COVID risk (in units of microCOVIDs, a 1-in-a-million chance of getting COVID).

2. a white paper that explains our estimation method. EAs might be particularly interested in the footnotes throughout, and the detailed research sources section.

3. a spreadsheet to compute your COVID risk in more detail and to track your risk over time. EAs might find this more customizable and powerful than the web calculator.

We hope this will directly help the EA community by resolving some of the issues highlighted in an earlier post:


"[Many EAs] are doing [COVID modeling] work themselves: it's time-costly, and it is mentally draining and stressful. It's also wasteful if a lot of this analysis work ends up getting replicated privately across many people. At the same time, [if people don't do these analyses,] households don't have ways of analyzing risks and deciding on acceptable behaviors"

If you have different beliefs than us and would like to use a version of the model that reflects your beliefs rather than ours, you can make modifications to your copy of the spreadsheet, or fork the repository and make a personal copy of the web calculator. We also hope you will submit suggestions, either by emailing us or by making issues or pull requests directly on github.