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SiebeRozendalNov 4 20243

How about adding this one?

https://manifold.markets/Siebe/if-trump-is-elected-will-the-us-sti

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npfossNov 2 20243

PolicyShow more

@Austin and I made a nice visualization for election-conditioned prediction markets!
https://policypredictions.com/ -- see how the markets think the world will look under Trump vs Harris

There's an AI market on there just for EAs :)

SiebeRozendalNov 4 20243

How about adding this one?

https://manifold.markets/Siebe/if-trump-is-elected-will-the-us-sti

npfossNov 4 20241

ooh that's an interesting one, hadn't seen it yet. if they make it real money I'll totally add it! (otherwise the manipulation incentive vastly outweighs the incentive to correct it)