Disclaimer: This blog post focuses on a new piece of research from Rethink Priorities. I was not involved with the funding or execution of this research, and therefore write this piece merely as a consumer. However, I am the Executive Director of Giving Green and a board member of Rethink Priorities, and acknowledge that these affiliations may bias my...
Epistemic status: Speculation from two decently informed advocates armed with anecdata.
Note on process: After having some version of this conversation several times and saying, “we should probably write about this publicly,” we took the less heroic route: we recorded one of our conversations, fed the transcript into an LLM, and then substantially revised the structure, substance, and framing ourselves. We will not be sharing the transcript, as it is in...
Michael Nielsen has a beautiful new essay on moral imagination: the ability humans have to 'develop and transmit new notions of good action, indeed, even new kinds of good'.
As examples, he gives:
* Hammurabi's creation of a code of laws (in 1754 BCE) and his justification of his rule not in terms of divine or hereditary right, but by the delivery of justice to his citizens.
* St Gregory of Nyssa's...
@Austin and I made a nice visualization for election-conditioned prediction markets!
https://policypredictions.com/ -- see how the markets think the world will look under Trump vs Harris
There's an AI market on there just for EAs :)
How about adding this one?
https://manifold.markets/Siebe/if-trump-is-elected-will-the-us-sti
ooh that's an interesting one, hadn't seen it yet. if they make it real money I'll totally add it! (otherwise the manipulation incentive vastly outweighs the incentive to correct it)