"discussions", which are more casual and will only appear on the subforum
"posts", which are simply regular posts with the tag that the subforum uses - these can appear on the Frontpage as well as the subofurm if the user selects this option (it is selected by default)
Announcing a subforum for forecasting & estimation
As mentioned before, the Forum team is piloting subforums that allow people interested in specific topics in effective altruism to keep up with them, have more casual conversations with a smaller group of people interested in the same topic, and engage more deeply with the topic. We’ve just kicked off our fourth subforum: forecasting & estimation!
What goes in a “forecasting & estimation” subforum?
Some discussions that we think people might have in this subforum:
It’s early days for subforums, and we expect the features and structure to evolve significantly in the near future, so feedback is particularly useful right now. You can comment here or email us at [email protected].
Here’s the current setup:
All posts that are relevant to the subforum’s topic will appear in the subforum, even if they’re by someone who’s not part of the subforum.
You can post directly to the subforum, so only people who have joined the space or are exploring it will see them. There are two approaches possible:
Full posts in the subforum are like normal Forum posts
Discussion threads in the subforum are a bit like shortform comments
The default ordering of content in the subforum is by a combination of recency and upvotes (“magic”). If someone adds a comment to a post or thread in the subforum, the post will resurface at the top of the discussion.
Every subforum has an “organizer.” You can see an outline of what they’ll be doing here.
Notifications: if you join the subforum, you’ll have the choice to opt in to notifications of new posts and discussions. You can change this by clicking on the bell icon on the subforum page and setting your preferences accordingly (e.g. by removing “upweight on frontpage”).
TLDR: Take the population ethics quiz here: https://mdickens.me/pop-ethics/
Population ethics is an oft-overlooked subfield within ethics. Many people hold views that they don't realize contradict each other, or that have strange implications that they wouldn't endorse if they thought about it more.
Not just that—population ethics is a BIG DEAL. A lot of ethical decisions hinge on how you think about changes in future populations....
Headline finding: I audited 17 AI Safety Talent programmes. Zero of 17 have published any comparison group, rejected-applicant follow-up, matched control or randomisation. Not one. Every programme that mentions a counterfactual does it by asking participants to self-report.
Background
At least $70 million...
The swarm has made me feel AI risk in my bones for the first time
Until the Hugging Face / OpenAI swarm thing, I think I deep down felt pretty skeptical that extinction or serious loss of control scenarios were plausible in the next few years.
I’ve been lurking on LessWrong for years, and I remember being freaked out by Yudkowsky’s ‘List of Lethalities’ in 2022, and thinking that this did seem intellectually convincing, and maybe I should do something about it. But it didn...
Will subforum posts feature on the main RSS feed? Thanks!
Subforums will allow two types of posts: