Should Twitter have prediction markets in Community Notes?

Nathan Young

I think there is a small but non-trivial chance I can get the community notes team to make it much easier to reference prediction markets.

Is this a good idea?

Pros:

Prediction markets have good incentives towards accuracy

Cons:

It's a change to a huge information ecosystem. In general I think that massive changes run on the back of Nathan has a good idea are unwise.

I'd value comments on this doc https://docs.google.com/document/d/1dsOKcn7rZhFa3yDC83IWASKtiwRAoF-xmjbCLesgySo/edit

Thanks for your time.

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mako yass

Oct 20, 2023

Probably not, because it's not really important for the two systems to be integrated. You can (or should be able to) link/embed a manifold from a community note. If the community notes process doesn't respect or doesn't investigate prediction markets closely enough already. Adding a feature to twitter wouldn't accelerate that by much?

Usually it's beneficial for different systems to have a single shared account system so that there isn't a barrier in the way of people interacting with the other system, but manifold is not direly in need of a twitter-sized userbase. Its userbase is large and energetic enough to produce accurate enough estimates already.

(personally, I think a more interesting question is whether manifold should try to replicate general twitter/reddit functionality :p)

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