In recent months, the CEOs of leading AI companies have grown increasingly confident about rapid progress:
* OpenAI's Sam Altman: Shifted from saying in November "the rate of progress continues" to declaring in January "we are now confident we know how to build AGI"
* Anthropic's Dario Amodei: Stated in January "I'm more confident than I've ever been that we're close to powerful capabilities... in the next 2-3 years"
* Google DeepMind's Demis Hassabis: Changed from "as soon as 10 years" in autumn to "probably three to five years away" by January.
What explains the shift? Is it just hype? Or could we really have Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)[1] by 2028?
In this article, I look at what's driven recent progress, estimate how far those drivers can continue, and explain why they're likely to continue for at least four more years.
In particular, while in 2024 progress in LLM chatbots seemed to slow, a new approach started to work: teaching the models to reason using reinforcement learning.
In just a year, this let them surpass human PhDs at answering difficult scientific reasoning questions, and achieve expert-level performance on one-hour coding tasks.
We don't know how capable AGI will become, but extrapolating the recent rate of progress suggests that, by 2028, we could reach AI models with beyond-human reasoning abilities, expert-level knowledge in every domain, and that can autonomously complete multi-week projects, and progress would likely continue from there.
On this set of software engineering & computer use tasks, in 2020 AI was only able to do tasks that would typically take a human expert a couple of seconds. By 2024, that had risen to almost an hour. If the trend continues, by 2028 it'll reach several weeks.
No longer mere chatbots, these 'agent' models might soon satisfy many people's definitions of AGI — roughly, AI systems that match human performance at most knowledge work (see definition in footnote).
This means that, while the compa
This is a very important question and it is great that you are considering it. I have a few suggestions...
1. Insights and practices from the world of cognitive behavioral therapy can be quite applicable to maintaining motivation and a sense of purpose. I'd suggest the Feeling Good Podcast by David Burns (he also has several books but the Podcast is more recent and very accessible).
2. Humans aren't rational beings and to that end, understanding the heuristics and cognitive biases we regularly operate under can be instructive and provide some useful ideas for how to leverage these biases to foster a greater sense of purpose and motivation. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases
3. The book Drive by Daniel Pink and The Power of Habit both have some useful information relevant to maintaining a sense of motivation.
4. I've found one's mental and physical state has a large influence over their level of motivation. It can be easier to approach the issue of motivation in a less straight forward path. Improving your mental and physical state will naturally improve your ability to maintain motivation. So instead of asking "how can I be motivated" ask "how can I put myself in a state where motivation is more likely".