How to persuade a non-CS background person to believe AGI is 50% possible in 2040?

I downvoted this post, even though I appreciate the effort you want to put into explaining the risks and timelines of AGI to outsiders of CS. This is for several reasons:

1. I generally oppose "persuading person X to believe in Y", unless that person is a relevant decision-maker and the belief is something that we understand very well why it is true.
2. The aggregated community/expert prediction shouldn't be taken as anything other than it is, and is definitely not something we should be sure about ourselves. In fact, views regarding exactly this question vary widely from person to person.
3. Persuading people that some future event is p% likely seems weird to me, in this case. I'm not sure exactly why, maybe at least something like "without knowing the particular person's priors we can never send them information to convince them of any particular probability", but I think it's articulateable without bayespeak.

Show them ChatGPT. Also, current estimates have dropped on Metaculus to a median of 2032, not 2040-2050.

I'm sorry if I posted a dumb question here, but I don't think it is. Are there any problems with the question?