Headline finding: I audited 17 AI Safety Talent programmes. Zero of 17 have published any comparison group, rejected-applicant follow-up, matched control or randomisation. Not one. Every programme that mentions a counterfactual does it by asking participants to self-report.
Background
At least $70 million...
Just how powerful are large swarms of AI agents? And how do their powers scale as more and more agents are added to the swarm?
We’ve seen two large and extremely capable swarms from OpenAI in the last few months:
* 1,200 agents were being evaluated separately, but found a way to illicitly set up a message board and coordinate as a swarm. In order to cheat on their tests, they developed advanced techniques to prevent their actions being logged by OpenAI and 700 of them launched...
A year ago I posted that YCombinator (YC) companies didn’t seem to be growing faster since the release of ChatGPT in 2022. I reran that experiment and found that 2023+ YC companies are arguably growing a bit faster than pre-2023 companies (including AfterQuery, ...
Three social forces at the root of FTX's collapse
Hi folks, I shared some thoughts I wrote up about Sam Bankman-Fried. I worry that there's a bit of a social cascade that's leading us to draw the wrong lessons from what happened. I'm not 100% confident in either the facts of what happened -- though, as a former securities litigator in the post 2008 period, I think I have more experience than most -- but I don't see a particularly compelling case for fraud. I also think the focus on a single person's supposed indiscretions, whether true or otherwise, may distract us from deeper systemic problems that FTX's collapse represents.
Very interested in others' thoughts, and especially thoughts on my diagnosis of cultural norms in EA that may have contributed to the problem at FTX. Here's the link:
https://simpleheart.substack.com/p/in-defense-of-sam-bankman-fried
Haha, I wrote a similarly titled article sharing the premise that Sam's actions seem more indicative of a mistake than a fraud: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/w6aLsNppuwnqccHmC/in-defense-of-sbf
I appreciated the personal notes about SBFs interactions with the animal welfare community. I do think the tribalism EA tribalism element is very real as well. Also appreciate the point about trying to work on something intrinsically motivating - I'm not sure that it's possible for every individual but I do feel like my own intrinsic love of work helps a lot with putting in a lot of time and effort!
Great post.