Forecasting the path to artificial general intelligence (AGI) is not only a technical exercise, but a question of governance. Understanding how different development trajectories interact with institutional capacity, geopolitical incentives, and regulatory lag can help identify stress points for policy and diplomacy between now and 2027.
This brief (link below) introduces a foresight-based model exploring whether global governance will keep pace with frontier AI development. Three archetypes are proposed: Adaptive Governance (rapid response after crisis), Structural Inertia (institutional lag and fragmentation), and Bifurcated Governance (regional divergence between precaution and competition). The model applies a conditional probability framework to estimate the likelihood of policy systems maintaining pace with capability growth.
The brief also builds on the AI 2027 project, which applied structured forecasting to model technical progress through 2027. Building on that framework, it adds a "policy-readiness" dimension—assessing how institutional capacity scales not only relative to capability growth, but geopolitical factors as well...
