In nearly every discussion I've engaged in relating to the potential delay or pause in AI research, multiple people have responded with the quip: "If we don't build AGI, then China will, which is an even worse possible world". This is taken at face value and is something I've never seen seriously challenged.
This does not seem obvious to me.
Given China's semi-conductor supply chain issues, China's historical lack of cutting edge innovative technology research and the tremendous challenges powerful AI systems may pose to the governing party and their ideology, it seems highly uncertain that China will develop AGI in a world where Western orgs stopped developing improved LLMs.
I appreciate people can point to multiple countries, including ones with non-impressive historical research credentials, developing nuclear weapons independently.
Beyond this, can anyone point me to, or outline arguments in favour of the idea that China is very likely to develop AGI+, even if Western orgs cease research in this field.
I don't have a strong view on this topic but given so many people assume it to be true, I would like to further understand the arguments in support of this claim.