DMMF - I also encounter this claim very often on social media. 'If the US doesn't rush ahead towards AGI, China will, & then we lose'. It's become one of the most common objections to slowing down AI research by US companies, and is repeated ad nauseum by anti-AI-safety accelerationists.

I agree with you that it's not at all obvious that China would rush ahead with AI if the US slowed down. China's CCP leadership already seems pretty concerned with X risks and global catastrophic risks, e.g. climate change. Xi Jinping's concept of 'community of common destiny' emphasizes humanity's shared vulnerability to runaway technological developments such as space-based weapons (and AI, maybe). Chinese science fiction movies (e.g. Shanghai Fortress, The Wandering Earth), routinely depict China as saving the rest of humanity from X-risks, after other nations have failed. I think China increasingly sees itself as the wise elder trying to keep impetuous, youthful, reckless America from messing everything up for everybody.

If China was more expansionist, imperialistic, and aggressive, I'd be more concerned that they would push ahead with AI development for military applications. Yes, they want to retake Taiwan, and they will, sooner or later. But they're not showing the kind of generalized western-Pacific expansionist ambitions that Japan showed in the 1930s. As long as the US doesn't meddle too much in the 'internal affairs of China' (which they see as including Taiwan), there's little need for a military arms race involving AI.

I worry that Americans tend to think and act as if we are the only people in the world who are capable of long-term thinking, X risk reduction, or appreciation of humanity's shared fate. As if either the US dominates the world with AI, or other nations such as China will develop dangerous AI without any concern for the consequences. The evidence so far suggests that China might actually be a better steward of our global safety than the US is being, at least in the domain of AI development.

PS I'd encourage folks to read this excellent article on whether China is being over-hyped as an AI rival.

It all depends on what timeline you're considering. Can China do it in a year? Very likely not. Can it do it if left alone for a century? Probably yes. What time frame do you have in mind?

I have a few questions and a lot of things that give me pause:

1. Even assuming that the pursuers come to know the risks - perhaps that AGI may ultimately betray its users - why would that diminish its appeal? Some % of people have always been drawn to the pursuit of power without much concern for the potential risks.
2. Why would leaders in China view AGI they controlled as a threat to their power? It seems that artificial intelligence is a key part of how the Chinese government currently preserves its power internally, and it's not a stretch to see how artificial intelligence could help massively in external power projection, as well as in economic growth.
3. Why assume Chinese incompetence in the area of AI? China invests a lot of money into AI, uses it in almost all areas of society, and aims for global leadership in this area by 2030. China also has a large pool of AI researchers and engineers, a lot of data, and few data protections for individuals. Assuming incompetence is not only unwise, it disregards genuine Chinese achievements, and in some cases it's prejudiced. Do you really want to say that China does not perform innovative technology research?
4. If China is genuinely struggling (economically, technologically, etc.), why would leaders abandon the pursuit of AGI? I would have thought the opposite. History suggests that countries which see themselves as having a narrow window of opportunity to achieve victory are the most dangerous. And fuzzy assumptions of benevolence are unwise: Xi Jinping has told the Chinese military to prepare for war, while overseeing one of the fastest military expansions in history, and he has consolidated authority around himself.
5. Given the potential risks associated with the development of AGI, what approach do you recommend for slowing down its pursuit: a unilateral approach where countries like the US and UK take the initiative, or a multilateral approach where countries like China are included and formal agreements (including verification arrangements) are established? How would you establish trust while also preventing authoritarian regimes from gaining AGI supremacy? The article you linked mentions a lot of "maybes" - maybe China would not gain supremacy - but to be honest, given the high stakes, Western policymakers would want much higher confidence.