Philip Eyrikson Tetlock (born 2 March 1954) is a Canadian-American political scientist, currently a professor at the University of Pennsylvania.

Philip Tetlock is famous for his work on the concept and practice of good judgement, including on how to make accurate probabilistic predictions, which he discusses in his book Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction.

Further reading

Galef, Julia (2021) Julia Galef Interviews Philip Tetlock for ‘The Ezra Klein Show’, The New York Times, December 3.

Wiblin, Robert (2017) Prof Tetlock on predicting catastrophes, why keep your politics secret, and when experts know more than you, 80,000 Hours, November 20.

Wiblin, Robert & Keiran Harris (2019) Accurately predicting the future is central to absolutely everything. Professor Tetlock has spent 40 years studying how to do it better, 80,000 Hours, June 28.

Tetlock, Philip E. (2006) Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?, Princeton: Princeton Univ. Press.

Tetlock, Philip E. & Dan Gardner (2015) Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, New York: Crown Publishers.

Philip E. Tetlock. Official website.

forecasting