Here are a couple of articles about Phil Tetlock and the Good Judgement Project, which is a search for Superforecasters.
Forecasting seems important for averting risks, and the discussion, which includes Kahnemann and other leading researchers, is wide-ranging, with lots of insights about clear-thinking.
- Office for anticipating surprise
- A short course in superforecasting: index
- A short course in superforecasting I