1938 karmaJoined Dec 2021


Topic Contributions


@Linch  this is an unacceptable comment, steeped with condescension and some racism. 

Sorry for very short comment Great post , seems like could be amenable to a mass media campaign on it CE are looking to start new mass media charities I think you should get in touch/ happy to introduce

What was the recruitment method for this study? Do you think that could be skewing the data in any way?

As someone who occupies a 'leadership' position in EA, what is your mentality and approach to fostering a new generating of EA leaders, and making sure that we have a bigger, stronger and more diverse group of 'leaders' within the community?

*I don't necessarily love the use of the words leader and leadership, but think it is a helpful and simple shorthand in this instance.

I am planning to write a shorter, more speculative examination of AMR as a GCBR/X-risk in the coming weeks :) I will try and address this there, thanks for the great question

Really excellent question, and unfortunately we don't have a good answer here. We know all the factors that contribute to AMR, but we haven't as yet been able to quantify their relative contribution. This really constrains impact and investment within the space as it makes impact evaluation difficult, and makes it difficult for governments and other funders to justify the value of AMR interventions and policies that they may be considering. As I mention in the report, this is probably amongst the highest, if not highest, area of need within the space. Part of the difficulty with developing good quantified models of the drivers of AMR is a balance between making sure it is scientifically rigorous enough (which would likely require longitudinal metagenomic data), but also getting answers relatively quickly (and inexpensively).

Any projects or groups working on this idea should be in touch!

Great question. It is true that a lot of antibiotics that are used globally are used in factory farming. What is less clear, however, is how much this contributes to AMR (i.e. just because 70% of antibiotics are used for animals does not mean that 70% of AMR or AMR-attributable mortality is a result of use in animal agriculture). Because the science is unclear on exactly how much factory farming contributes (although it undoubtedly plays some role), this is a tricky question to answer

However, regardless, in expectation and even with conservative estimates of the above, advocacy to limit the use of antibiotics as a growth stimulation or prophylactically in factory farming is a promising thing to do.

There have been successful corporate campaigns and certification standards in this space (e.g. here and here amongst many other examples). From my conversations with folk in the space, there would be a role and scope for new actors in this area.

Hey I have a couple of cost-effectiveness analyses that I can point you to:

Hi cflexman,

I think these are valuable comments, and you are absolutely correct. Limited time meant that I (1) was very short-hand in how I aggregated effect sizes/results from academic studies, (2) used simplistic point estimates. Ideally, I would have done a meta-analysis style method with risk of bias assessment etc. My main limitation is a frustrating one- time.

I did try and caveat that with trying to make all my shorthands and uncertainties explicit, but I dont think I quite succeeded at that.

One area I would push back on is the comments regarding social interventions and survey data- the methods  in most/all these studies are survey effects asking women wehther they have experienced violence in the last year. To me, this seems pretty robust, and as long as the surveys are conducted to a high standard with low risk of bias (which most of the studies have dedicated sections to explain how they tried to do this, to varying degrees of success),  think this is credible and internally valid data.

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