Co-founder of and researcher at Convergence. Convergence does foundational existential risk strategy research. See here for our growing list of publications.

Past: R&D Project Manager, Software Engineer.


Concerns with ACE's Recent Behavior

Would you really call Jakub's response "hostile"?

CEA update: Q1 2021

Thanks for posting this. I find it quite useful to get an overview of how the EA community is being managed and developed.

Introducing the Simon Institute for Longterm Governance (SI)

Happy to see the new institute take form! Thanks for doing this, Maxime and Konrad. International long-term governance appears very high-leverage to me. Good luck, and I'm looking forward to see more of your work!

Politics is far too meta
  • Some "criticisms" are actually self-fulfilling prophecies
  • EAs are far too inclined to abandon high-EV ideas that are <50% likely to succeed
  • Over-relying on outside views over inside views.
  • Picking the wrong outside view / reference class, or not even considering the different reference classes on offer.

Strong upvote for these.

Don't Be Bycatch

What I appreciate the most about this post is simply just the understanding it shows for people in this situation.

It's not easy. Everyone has their own struggles. Hang in there. Take some breaks. You can learn, you can try something slightly different, or something very different. Make sure you have a balanced life, and somewhere to go. Make sure you have good plan B's (e.g., myself, I can always go back to the software industry). In the for-profit and wider world, there are many skills you can learn better than you would working at an EA org.

Introducing Metaforecast: A Forecast Aggregator and Search Tool

Great idea and excellent work, thanks for doing this!

This gets me wondering what other kinds of data sources could be integrated (on some other platform, perhaps). And, I guess you could fairly easily do statistics to see big picture differences between the data on the different sites.

Assessing the impact of quantum cryptanalysis

Thanks Linch; I actually missed that the prediction had closed!

Assessing the impact of quantum cryptanalysis

Metaculus: Will quantum computing "supremacy” be achieved by 2025? [prediction closed on Jun 1, 2018.]

While I find it plausible that it will happen, I'm not personally convinced that quantum computers will be practically very useful due the difficulties in scaling them up.

Improving the future by influencing actors' benevolence, intelligence, and power

Excellent points, Carl. (And Stefan's as well.) We would love to see follow-up posts exploring nuances like these, and I put them into the Convergence list of topics worth elaborating.

Effective Altruism Stipend: A Short Experiment by EA Estonia

Sounds like you got some pretty great engagement out of this experiment! Great work! This exact kind of project, and the space of related ideas seems well worth exploring further.

The five people that we decided to reject were given feedback about their translations as well as their motivation letters. We also provided two simple call-to-actions to them: (1) read our blog and join our newsletter, and (2) follow our FB page and attend our public events. None of these five people have so far done these actions to our awareness.

Semi-general comment regarding rejections: I think, overall, rejection is a sensitive matter. And if we do want rejected applicants (to stipends, jobs, projects, ...) to try more or to maintain their interest in the specific project and in EA overall, we need to take a lot of care. I'm, for example, concerned that the difficulty of getting jobs at EA orgs and the situation of being rejected from them discourages many people from engaging closer with EA. Perhaps just being sympathetic and encouraging enough will do a lot of good. Perhaps there's more we could do.

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