CEO @ Convergence Analysis
353 karmaJoined Working (15+ years)


CEO of Convergence


BERI is doing an awesome service for university-affiliated groups, I hope more will take advantage of it!

Would you really call Jakub's response "hostile"?

Thanks for posting this. I find it quite useful to get an overview of how the EA community is being managed and developed.

Happy to see the new institute take form! Thanks for doing this, Maxime and Konrad. International long-term governance appears very high-leverage to me. Good luck, and I'm looking forward to see more of your work!

  • Some "criticisms" are actually self-fulfilling prophecies
  • EAs are far too inclined to abandon high-EV ideas that are <50% likely to succeed
  • Over-relying on outside views over inside views.
  • Picking the wrong outside view / reference class, or not even considering the different reference classes on offer.

Strong upvote for these.

What I appreciate the most about this post is simply just the understanding it shows for people in this situation.

It's not easy. Everyone has their own struggles. Hang in there. Take some breaks. You can learn, you can try something slightly different, or something very different. Make sure you have a balanced life, and somewhere to go. Make sure you have good plan B's (e.g., myself, I can always go back to the software industry). In the for-profit and wider world, there are many skills you can learn better than you would working at an EA org.

Great idea and excellent work, thanks for doing this!

This gets me wondering what other kinds of data sources could be integrated (on some other platform, perhaps). And, I guess you could fairly easily do statistics to see big picture differences between the data on the different sites.

Thanks Linch; I actually missed that the prediction had closed!

Metaculus: Will quantum computing "supremacy” be achieved by 2025? [prediction closed on Jun 1, 2018.]

While I find it plausible that it will happen, I'm not personally convinced that quantum computers will be practically very useful due the difficulties in scaling them up.

Excellent points, Carl. (And Stefan's as well.) We would love to see follow-up posts exploring nuances like these, and I put them into the Convergence list of topics worth elaborating.

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