All of Conor Barnes's Comments + Replies

Hi Remmelt,

Just following up on this — I agree with Benjamin’s message above, but I want to add that we actually did add links to the “working at an AI lab” article in the org descriptions for leading AI companies after we published that article last June.

It turns out that a few weeks ago the links to these got accidentally removed when making some related changes in Airtable, and we didn’t notice these were missing — thanks for bringing this to our attention. We’ve added these back in and think they give good context for job board users, and we’re certain... (read more)

I really appreciated reading this, thank you.

Rereading your post, I'd also strongly recommend prioritizing finding ways to not spend all free time on it. Not only do I think that that level of fixating is one of the worst things people can do to make themselves suffer, it also makes it very hard to think straight and figure things out!

One thing I've seen suggested is dedicating time each day to use as research time on your questions. This is a compromise to free up the rest of your time to things that don't hurt your head. And hang out with friends who are good at distracting you!

I'm really sorry you're experiencing this. I think it's something more and more people are contending with, so you aren't alone, and I'm glad you wrote this. As somebody who's had bouts of existential dread myself, there are a few things I'd like to suggest:

1. With AI, we fundamentally do not know what is to come. We're all making our best guesses -- as you can tell by finding 30 different diagnoses! This is probably a hint that we are deeply confused, and that we should not be too confident that we are doomed (or, to be fair, too confident that we are safe).

I hadn't seen the previous dashboard, but I think the new one is excellent!

Thanks for the Possible Worlds Tree shout-out!

I haven't had capacity to improve it (and won't for a long time), but I agree that a dashboard would be excellent. I think it could be quite valuable even if the number choice isn't perfect.

"Give a man money for a boat, he already knows how to fish" would play off of the original formation!

Quite happy to see this on the forum!

It's pretty common in values-driven organisations to ask for an amount of value-alignment. The other day I helped out a friend with a resume for an organisation which asked for people applying to care about their feminist mission.

In my opinion this is a reasonable thing to ask for and expect. Sharing (overarching) values improves decision-making and requiring for it can help prevent value drift in an org.

Love to see this, thank you Nuño!

I'm really glad to hear it! Polishing is ongoing. Replied on GH too!

1. The probability of any one story being "successful" is very low, and basically up to luck, though connections to people with the power to move stories (ex. publishers, directors) would significantly help. 
2. Most ex-risk scenarios are perfect material for compelling and entertaining stories. They tap into common tropes (hubris of humans and scientists), are near-future disaster scenarios, and can have opposed hawk and dove characters. I imagine that a successful ex-risk movie could have a narrative shaped like Jurassic Park or The Day After Tomorrow.
3. My a

I love Possible Worlds Tree! It's aligned with the optimistic outlook, conveys the content better, and has a mythology pun. I couldn't be happier. Messaging re: bounty!

Thanks for all the feedback! I think the buffs to interactivity are all great ideas. They should mostly be implemented this week. 

A positive title would definitely help! I'll think on this.

Agreed. I think it needs a 'name' as a symbol, but the current one is a little fudged. My placeholder for a while was 'the tree of forking paths' as a Borges reference, but that was a bit too general...

This isn't exactly what I'm looking for (though I do think that concept needs a word). 

The way I'm conceptualizing it right now is that there are three non-existential outcomes:

1. Catastrophe
2. Sustenance  / Survival
3. Flourishing 

If you look at Toby Ord's prediction, he includes a number for flourishing, which is great. There isn't a matching prediction in the Ragnarok series, so I've squeezed 2 and 3 together as a "non-catastrophe" category.  

Thanks! I hadn't thought of user interviews, that's a great idea!

Thank you! And yeah, this is an artifact of the green nodes being filled in from the implicit  inverse percent of the Ragnarok prediction and not having its own prediction. I could link to somewhere else, but it would need to be worth breaking the consistency of the links (all Metaculus Ragnarok links).

There's good discussion happening in the Discord if you want to hop in there!

Nice!! This is pretty similar to a project Nuño Sempere and I are are working on, inspired by this proposal:

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/KigFfo4TN7jZTcqNH/the-future-fund-s-project-ideas-competition?commentId=vi7zALLALF39R6exF

I'm currently building the website for it while Nuño works on the data. I suspect these are compatible projects and  there's an effective way to link up! 

Forgot to say thanks, just used it! 

I second interest in a private submission / private forum option! I intend to submit my entry to a few places soon, but that won't be possible if it's "published" by submitting it here. If there isn't a private option I probably won't submit here.