For anyone curious:

https://impactpro.substack.com/p/the-case-for-having-children-sooner

 

Thanks!

maybe something on the order of 10% of their income

Not sure how much it matters, but the blog post mentions $10,000 to GiveWell alone, which was likely significantly more than 10% of a graduate student's income.

$1B is a very low number over 4-5 years, given their wealth and how much it could grow

Yeah I agree, for what it's worth I would expect (with low confidence) they'll donate significantly more. But in general, for most planning, it doesn't matter how much they give in relative terms but in absolute terms.

This is a slight update

A larger update for me was looking at GiveWell's public board meeting records, in particular Daniela Amodei is the person evaluating GiveWell's CEO, and seems an active board member here

I would bet that Dario Amodei makes <$1B in donations before June 2027, self-reported

Something interesting/unique about Anthropic's situation is that all 7 cofounders are now likely worth >$10B, so even if Dario doesn't donate much there's still a good chance others do (but obviously they're correlated.)

Personally, I'm most uncertain about whether they'll end up donating significantly to improve the welfare of biological beings vs focusing on digital beings. I expect them to take machine welfare quite seriously and increasingly so, and that to be something that markets and other funders won't care as much about.

I think it's also possible that they end up donating after 2027, timing donations around a potential critical transition period, and of course they have strong incentives to focus most of their capital to on winning the race.

Are you taking bets on whether the Anthropic founders will donate more than 1B before 2030? I think there is a lot of information that should update our "average billionaire" prior (e.g. https://blog.givewell.org/2010/06/03/my-donation-for-2009-guest-post-from-dario-amodei/)

I would interpret all three as signals that orgs find it harder to fill research roles, right?

research [...] which they generally find easier to fill

I'm surprised to read that lots of EA orgs find it easier to hire research roles than ops roles, and it doesn't match what I heard, or the state of 80k's job board at the moment, with ~1.8x more research roles than ops roles

Edit to clarify: my sense is that many orgs struggle to hire both for ops and for research

Random datapoint from Italy, when I started googling things on animal welfare/veganism years ago, this website was often one of the top Google results, and it seems it's still going strong

Here are some recent articles:

• Meat may protect against cancer: a new study strengthens the evidence.
• Broiler chickens and transport: more space does not improve animal welfare.
• Beyond the "Carbon Tunnel Vision": The meat and sustainability debate deserves more. (some quotes: "Cutting down on meat doesn't lower your personal carbon footprint." , "“Alternative” proteins are not better")

And here is an article from last year specifically against the European Chicken Commitment, which is a major focus of a lot of EA-funded campaigns, and has been a massive win in France and other countries.

That project seems to be supported by the "National Association of Meat and Livestock Industry and Trade", "Association of Meat and Cured Meat Industry", and a "National Union of Meat and Egg Agri-Food Supply Chains."

I would be surprised if there wouldn't be similar initiatives in other countries with a stronger animal rights movement, and if there weren't social media influencers running similar campaigns at much greater scale.

In general I think it's fairly easy make campaigns supporting all sorts of things, from factory farms, to tobacco, to datacenters^[1]

1. ^{^}

   e.g. I found this recent Asterisk article against a datacenter moratorium similar to the meat-industry articles above. Here's a section on environmental concerns: "Data centers aren’t the only new loads coming onto the grid – electric vehicles and electrified manufacturing are also driving demand that requires more generation, more transmission, and long-overdue grid modernization. Many data centers are leaning on gas for near-term power, but data centers could serve as anchor tenants for new clean generation, fiber, battery storage, and transmission. Many companies are moving in that direction.

   Industrial projects like these are also prompting pragmatic shifts on decarbonization from environmental groups. The Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC), for instance, just supported its first nuclear project ever, to power a data center.

   A moratorium forecloses exactly the kind of creative thinking these projects are beginning to generate."

Thank you for sharing this, and for the amazing job board!

Do you happen to also have an API or raw CSV/JSON export somewhere? (e.g. similar to https://backend.eawork.org/api/jobs for 80k)

[LLM written below, as I'm in a rush, but I confirm it's accurate]
A few weeks ago I clauded a quick job-search script for my sister. It pulls roles from several sources, deduplicates them, applies some basic filters, then uses an LLM to score likely fit and sends her the best on Telegram. Since May 8 it has sent ~130 roles from LinkedIn/Indeed via JobSpy, Probably Good, 80,000 Hours, jobs.ch, Exa, Greenhouse, and Arbeitnow.

For Probably Good, it’s currently using the public Algolia index, but I suspect that may be suboptimal compared to fetching all jobs and brittle. The new Airtable seems great for humans and no-code workflows, but for scripts and AI agents a simple raw CSV/JSON endpoint could be much easier to fetch autonomously. Airtable sync/API access seems to require a PAT or some scraping to get the current csv url, while a stable export of all published roles would make this kind of personal automation easier.
[/LLM]

This might be an uncommon usecase for now, but I recommend other people who know someone looking for a job to build similar automations based on their location/CV/interests/preferred messaging system

Does this apply to things like job listings (e.g. https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/tS23nkt27cDRFDrMf/hiring-head-of-community-engagement-us-giving-what-we-can ) ?

You can use https://web.archive.org/ for deleted web pages, e.g. https://web.archive.org/web/20250426145325/https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Pc3CFbYxPXgyjoDpB/seven-ways-to-become-unstoppably-agentic 

The author also deleted their EA Forum and LessWrong accounts, so you'd need to reach out to them directly to ask why

I don't think "EA Funding" is that useful of a term here. My sense is that forecasting is not funded by a large number of small retail donors thinking about forecasting as a category, but by few large institutions funding specific projects for specific reasons (which are sometimes not just effectiveness-related, and usually not public so hard to evaluate)