I agree with all of this. One thing missing is just joining AIS/EA before it was cool/got much more money. 

The Fallacy of Similar Magnitudes

A name I came up with for a pattern that comes up often enough to deserve one. Here’s a particular instance: 

Suppose you're a longtermist who thinks the vast majority of the (net positive) moral weight is in the far future, that AI existential risk is above 1%, and that it's reasonably tractable to reduce. Some people who hold all three premises still say things like: "AI safety has maybe two orders of magnitude more resources than animal welfare, so the marginal dollar is better spent on animal welfare."

This is the fallacy of similar magnitudes: in this case, the application is that neglectedness comparisons only matter when the causes are within a couple orders of magnitude of each other in stakes. Under the stated premises, they aren’t: the a priori difference in expected value is way larger. Two orders of magnitude in resources doesn't move the needle even a bit. 

Note: this AW response could be ok if you have certain views about risk aversion or worldview diversification, but that’s besides the point. 

I am helping co-run the Generator Residency, which enables generalist talent into AIS, and we will soon be posting lots of ideas we think generalists in AIS could work on. Be on the lookout! 

Lots of people in the Bay seem to be thinking about/preparing for/making funding decisions based on the idea that lots of philanthropy will be given to AIS/EA cause areas very soon (i.e. end of year-ish). I would love for someone to write the comprehensive steel man case against this, as I think it’s probably underrated (some reasons to think they won’t give the money/it won’t be as much as some assume. Happy to comment/ speak to whoever is interested in doing this.  

Post this on LW and youll prob get more offers 

This is a very good post.

Lucas! How r u?? 

I wonder how much value there would be in a company that principally doesn't engage in sports betting. From my understanding, lots of people that bet on these markets like betting on non-sports claims but just hate the sports market component. 

The EA Forum seems super dead, which is pretty bad. I think part of the reason is that much of the Forum gets cross-posted to LessWrong, so you get EA Forum content there plus everything else (especially AI stuff) — which means there's little reason to actually come here.

One take: don't cross-post to LessWrong. There are real benefits to having two intellectual communities that take the same kinds of ideas seriously but develop distinct cultures, emphases, and standards around them.

Other ways to help:

• Do lots of cause prio out loud — especially the parts that haven't been written about much
• If your private doc doesn't need to be private, don't make it private

More EA in da news: https://x.com/DavidSacks/status/2034047505336295904

And the spicy CAIS take: https://x.com/cais/status/2034389842076025164?s=46