I created a Weighted Factor Model of the best countries to live in in case of nuclear war.
I considered the following factors:
- Cost of Living (20%)
- Global Peace Index (20%)
- Energy Independence (15%)
- Latitude (all nuclear countries are in the North) (10%)
- Average rainfall (10%)
- Average temperature (nuclear winter reduces global temperature) (10%)
- Human Development Index (10%)
- Food Security (5%)
My plan is: if the situation worsens (measured with this and this Metaculus questions), go to the Canary Islands first (I'm European). Then, if it gets even worse, go to one of:
- Argentina
- Peru
- Uruguay
- Malaysia
- Australia
- New Zealand
I would love any feedback you might have :)
Hi, I have quite a lot to say about this, but I'm actually currently writing a research paper on exactly this issue, and will write a full forum post/link-post once it's completed (ETA June-ish). However, a couple of key observations:
There is a lot more that could be said but you're right that the large South American food producers (Argentina etc) look relatively more promising, as well as the usual suspects NZ & Australia. Though each will have severe problems in an actual nuclear winter and organisation such as food/fuel rationing and distribution from rural to urban areas will be immensely problematic. Not to mention the need for public communication processes to ensure people know there is a plan and survival is possible, again to avoid societal mayhem. Social cohesion, and stability indicators are probably very important.
One problem with composite indices is that very low scores on one dimension can be masked by reasonable scores on others. Countries should be ruled out if they fail on a critical dimension.
Finally, the act of 'escaping to' the 'most promising' location is not generalisable, and so the ethics of it are questionable. As Kant notes, the test is 'what if everyone did the same as me, would that undermine the institution in question?' and in this case it seems like the answer is yes. 8 billion people fleeing to Argentina would defeat the purpose of acting ahead of war to maximise the chances of each particular country. Carrying capacity calculations are important here too. I haven't even considered HEMP yet, which could very much complicate matters.
The following case study is particularly illuminating of the problems even 'good' locations like NZ might suffer: https://www.jstor.org/stable/4313623?refreqid=excelsior%3A166e17f569637767a9caded49a1ced42 contact me if you want the full text.
Come to Brazil. We can make room for +1bi individuals, easy. With nuclear winter, we may even manage to get some ski resorts ;)
(Ofc if we don't start a war w Argentina. That's the problem w South America)