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Metaculus's Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup Tournament is open for forecasting: This is an opportunity for forecasters of all experience levels to compete on topical questions, get fast feedback, and be recognized for their expertise.
Each week, we present a fresh set of questions on current events, and each week, at least one question resolves.
The Quarterly Cup also happens to be a great venue for submitting your own questions and contributing to the growth and vibrancy of the forecasting community. (And remember: We now award question-writing medals!)
The tournament kicks off with the following questions:
- Will the International Court of Justice order provisional measures against Israel before March 1, 2024?
- Will at least two of the three listed moon landing missions successfully land on the moon before March 1, 2024?
- When will the third Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff?
- Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in January 2024?
If you’re new to Metaculus, the Quarterly Cup is an excellent opportunity to learn how the platform works. If you’re a veteran, it’s the perfect place to demonstrate your abilities. For forecasters of all levels, it’s an opportunity to hone your skills, get better calibrated, engage with your fellow forecasters, and track current events through the lens of quantified forecasting.
And congratulations to the winners of our fourth quarter 2023 Quarterly Cup! The top three finishers are:
