Michael Montague, 7:48:
"I think the argument for extinction level events from artificial pathogens is profoundly weak. These complex systems--things like transmissibility, lethality--that's a hard thing to predict, to actually engineer. Just ask yourself how hard is it for record labels to predict which songs are going to be a hit. Until it hits the market, there's really no where to know. And that's a relatively simple situation, which pathogen is going to be immunologically a hit. You might have dialed in this little detail just a little bit wrong--oh it killed the patient too fast to transmit it."
This sounded like an improvised answer instead of a succinct summary of the strongest argument against extinction level events being likely--which I think would have been a more ideal thing to include in the video.
In particular, Michael's answer leads me to wonder how he knows that future technological developments wouldn't make it much easier to predict which pathogens would "immunologically be a hit" and yet the video doesn't tell me.
Or a second objection: Why, given a long enough time horizon, wouldn't the possibility of a bad actor engineering many, many pathogens until one of them finally hits wouldn't be a concern?
Hi! Just watched the video and I think it's super well produced, good job.
I was surprised how you managed to summarise a lot of the knowledge I already had on this topic in under 15 minutes.
Furthermore, I have talked to lots of people who mentioned that EA seems underrepresented in video format. YouTube seems like a good opportunity here that could be used more. Regarding this, I think this is valuable work. Also I like that you didn't give it the Effective Altruism "stamp". There should be more discussion on when it's appropriate to publicly advertise EA as a concept and when it's better to just introduce a topic we're concerned about without explicitely relating it to EA. This is related to the idea of external movement building:
Thank you! There is actually a longer version of my video (that I didn't publish) where I mention the EA longterm future fund and quickly pitch EA itself. But I decided to cut out that part because I already share it in a link in the description and it didn't add a lot to the central claims of the video. It would've made the video longer and lose its focus.
Good thinking! Attention spans are short enough these days so 15min seems plenty :)