Hide table of contents

Introduction: sortition in a representative democracy

Although the election of public offices by lot was previous to the election by vote and Aristotle considers it the properly democratic selection mechanism (for him election was mostly related to aristocratic regimes), apart from the jury, modern democracies resort to this method of selection on rare occasions. 

Modern democracies, unlike the ancient republics (where civil participation always was limited to the residents in the capital city) have been able extend over large territories based on the representative principle [1]

Sortision is a natural mechanism in the restricted franchise regime of the ancient republics. Joshia Ober describes in “Democracy and Knowledge” how the Athenian system implied a long political career in which a large part of the population took part, and where the election for various positions was progressive and involved a costly learning process. In our time, where citizenship is universal, that degree of political commitment (which among the Athenians mainly affected the men of the property-owning class), would have to be required of the participants in an assembly chosen by lot (that is, preventively to all the population since everyone would be eligible), but with the aggravating factor that in our time policy design involves more complex decisions than in Athens and depends on an incomparably more extensive knowledge base.

On the other hand, the representative system is based on the existence of an organized civil society. The society that the bourgeois-democratic revolutionaries inherited from their nobiliary predecessors (unlike the ancient polis) assumes the need for intermediate associations and institutional pluralism. In “Violence and Social Orders” it is argued that the associative freedom (whether for profit or for public action) defines more than any other characteristic the modern democracy. Only the existence of intermediate organizations representing sectoral interests, allows for representative political systems, and provides a framework for mass democracy. Above all, modern politics is a competition among political specialists in integrating the preferences of self-organized groups into collective action. This is the core difference between the liberty of moderns and that of the ancients.

Recently the creation of citizen assemblies based on random selection has been proposed to replace or complement the elective branch of the Legislative power. In my view a citizen Assembly chosen by lottery would be blatantly ineffective and would be captured by its technical support bureaucracy. It would be also in a permanent conflict with the far more professional and well connected representative legislature chosen by vote. The representative principle and modern democracy are incompatible with the mechanism of sortision.

Sortition and the Veil of Ignorance

However, for human groups with a homogeneous degree of knowledge and a common training (that eases communication and the division of intellectual labor) the lottery is the best tool to achieve homogeneous, replicable and impartial decisions. Both the ancient Romans and John Rawls represent justice behind a veil of ignorance: the just decision is one that does not depend on proper names or special circumstances, but on the application of general laws and principles to the particular case.

The first step to avoid the corruption of a court or committee is that those potentially investigated do not a priori know its composition. 

Choosing the High Courts: judicial career and lottery

Although there is a clear tension between democracy and legality, in practice, democracy depends on an institutional infrastructure that channels the popular will into political action. Pure democracy, not restricted by checks and balances, is doomed to “one man, one vote, once”: dozens of colonial independences in the XXth century empirically support the obvious argument that the government can use its present electoral victory to block any future political alternation. Apparent exceptions, as the all-powerful Westminster Parliament are not so exceptional: the Parliament power was limited until the XIX by the role of the Crown, and in all times by the existence of a close knit oligarchy (first nobiliary, now bourgeois) and an apolitical Army and Civil Service.    

In modern democracies the High Courts are charged with the protection of the machinery of political alternation. Even their role as guarantors of Human Rights is mainly a consequence of the fact that these personal immunities are critical for the workings of the political system. 

In the classic case of the United States the Supreme Court is chosen by the President and its members serve for life. This mechanism is reasonably adequate if chance does not cause the Court to be disproportionately renewed in a single Presidency. But in any case, political election of High Courts is always a dangerous form of capture

It is clearly preferable to allow the Legislature to establish the criteria for access and promotion in the judicial career. These criteria can be used to select a subset of eligible judges, and members of the Supreme Court shall be chosen by lottery from among that subset.  The more mechanical, depoliticized and temporally distant the judicial review is from the moment of the effective choice of the Supreme Court justices, the more secure the constitutional mechanism is.

As an example, let’s take the following judicial career: access is based on a competitive examination. Promotions depend on the seniority and the congruence of the decisions (and arguments) of the judge with those of her superior courts. In the committees that judge congruence there may be representation (also chosen by lot) of the Legislature plus that of more senior justices. 

The eligible judges for the High Court shall be are an important fraction (between 10 and 25%) of all judges in their last ten years of career. In this stylized example, the points of political intervention in the judicial career are very remote from the final selection for the Court. By adding to this kind of “judicial career” a lottery among eligible justices, the resulting Supreme Court would be robust and legitimate.

Of course, what has been said here for the High Courts is equally valid for other panels of experts, which in public and private institutions have to decide on relatively objective issues: public committees, procurement boards, etc. In all of them, meritocratic selection, continuous expert evaluation, and lottery implement both the Rawlsian veil of ignorance and a system of consensus formation.

[1] See "El problema de la expansión republicana”, Revista de Occidente, ISSN 0034-8635, Nº 493, 2022. Interested (Spanish speaking) readers can contact me in arturo.macias@gmail.com

Comments


No comments on this post yet.
Be the first to respond.
Curated and popular this week
Paul Present
 ·  · 28m read
 · 
Note: I am not a malaria expert. This is my best-faith attempt at answering a question that was bothering me, but this field is a large and complex field, and I’ve almost certainly misunderstood something somewhere along the way. Summary While the world made incredible progress in reducing malaria cases from 2000 to 2015, the past 10 years have seen malaria cases stop declining and start rising. I investigated potential reasons behind this increase through reading the existing literature and looking at publicly available data, and I identified three key factors explaining the rise: 1. Population Growth: Africa's population has increased by approximately 75% since 2000. This alone explains most of the increase in absolute case numbers, while cases per capita have remained relatively flat since 2015. 2. Stagnant Funding: After rapid growth starting in 2000, funding for malaria prevention plateaued around 2010. 3. Insecticide Resistance: Mosquitoes have become increasingly resistant to the insecticides used in bednets over the past 20 years. This has made older models of bednets less effective, although they still have some effect. Newer models of bednets developed in response to insecticide resistance are more effective but still not widely deployed.  I very crudely estimate that without any of these factors, there would be 55% fewer malaria cases in the world than what we see today. I think all three of these factors are roughly equally important in explaining the difference.  Alternative explanations like removal of PFAS, climate change, or invasive mosquito species don't appear to be major contributors.  Overall this investigation made me more convinced that bednets are an effective global health intervention.  Introduction In 2015, malaria rates were down, and EAs were celebrating. Giving What We Can posted this incredible gif showing the decrease in malaria cases across Africa since 2000: Giving What We Can said that > The reduction in malaria has be
LintzA
 ·  · 15m read
 · 
Cross-posted to Lesswrong Introduction Several developments over the past few months should cause you to re-evaluate what you are doing. These include: 1. Updates toward short timelines 2. The Trump presidency 3. The o1 (inference-time compute scaling) paradigm 4. Deepseek 5. Stargate/AI datacenter spending 6. Increased internal deployment 7. Absence of AI x-risk/safety considerations in mainstream AI discourse Taken together, these are enough to render many existing AI governance strategies obsolete (and probably some technical safety strategies too). There's a good chance we're entering crunch time and that should absolutely affect your theory of change and what you plan to work on. In this piece I try to give a quick summary of these developments and think through the broader implications these have for AI safety. At the end of the piece I give some quick initial thoughts on how these developments affect what safety-concerned folks should be prioritizing. These are early days and I expect many of my takes will shift, look forward to discussing in the comments!  Implications of recent developments Updates toward short timelines There’s general agreement that timelines are likely to be far shorter than most expected. Both Sam Altman and Dario Amodei have recently said they expect AGI within the next 3 years. Anecdotally, nearly everyone I know or have heard of who was expecting longer timelines has updated significantly toward short timelines (<5 years). E.g. Ajeya’s median estimate is that 99% of fully-remote jobs will be automatable in roughly 6-8 years, 5+ years earlier than her 2023 estimate. On a quick look, prediction markets seem to have shifted to short timelines (e.g. Metaculus[1] & Manifold appear to have roughly 2030 median timelines to AGI, though haven’t moved dramatically in recent months). We’ve consistently seen performance on benchmarks far exceed what most predicted. Most recently, Epoch was surprised to see OpenAI’s o3 model achi
Rory Fenton
 ·  · 6m read
 · 
Cross-posted from my blog. Contrary to my carefully crafted brand as a weak nerd, I go to a local CrossFit gym a few times a week. Every year, the gym raises funds for a scholarship for teens from lower-income families to attend their summer camp program. I don’t know how many Crossfit-interested low-income teens there are in my small town, but I’ll guess there are perhaps 2 of them who would benefit from the scholarship. After all, CrossFit is pretty niche, and the town is small. Helping youngsters get swole in the Pacific Northwest is not exactly as cost-effective as preventing malaria in Malawi. But I notice I feel drawn to supporting the scholarship anyway. Every time it pops in my head I think, “My money could fully solve this problem”. The camp only costs a few hundred dollars per kid and if there are just 2 kids who need support, I could give $500 and there would no longer be teenagers in my town who want to go to a CrossFit summer camp but can’t. Thanks to me, the hero, this problem would be entirely solved. 100%. That is not how most nonprofit work feels to me. You are only ever making small dents in important problems I want to work on big problems. Global poverty. Malaria. Everyone not suddenly dying. But if I’m honest, what I really want is to solve those problems. Me, personally, solve them. This is a continued source of frustration and sadness because I absolutely cannot solve those problems. Consider what else my $500 CrossFit scholarship might do: * I want to save lives, and USAID suddenly stops giving $7 billion a year to PEPFAR. So I give $500 to the Rapid Response Fund. My donation solves 0.000001% of the problem and I feel like I have failed. * I want to solve climate change, and getting to net zero will require stopping or removing emissions of 1,500 billion tons of carbon dioxide. I give $500 to a policy nonprofit that reduces emissions, in expectation, by 50 tons. My donation solves 0.000000003% of the problem and I feel like I have f