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A preliminary estimate, and a request for better ones.
Summary
I believe the standard literature estimates for the number of DALYs attributable to a case of stunting are too low, largely because they don’t account for the long term effects. This means that childhood nutritional interventions that reduce the prevalence of stunting may be substantially more cost-effective than previously believed.
Epistemic status
Exploratory and back-o...
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I’ve been feeling pretty shaken since the METR report about the Hugging Face incident came out last week. Over the weekend, I wrote up some thoughts on how lonely the AI situation sometimes feels to me. It’s more personal than what I’d usually share publicly, but I thought I’d post it here in case it resonates with anyone else.
I’m very grateful to the man...
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TL;DR: Kairos has raised $50 million from Coefficient Giving for two years of funding, one of the largest commitments they’ve made towards AI safety fieldbuilding to date. We’re using this to make an ambitious push for growing Kairos, broadening our portfolio of talent infrastructure projects and incubating new organizations. We’ve doubled in size in the last six mon...
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If you think about the fraud SBF did, it could technically be thought of as merely a redistribution of wealth from those who held FTX to those who shorted ftx and almeda.
Could it be possible that this redistribution was good?
Among other reasons to disagree with this statement, I don't think it is accurate to say that depositors "held FTX."
Was anyone able to short FTX or Alameda? Neither was publicly traded.
Presumably could short the FTT token, which was a form of psuedo-equity in FTX.
For every dollar someone lost, someone else gained a dollar, I wonder where that money went.
Overpriced private equity investments, bad crypto trades, celebrity endorsers, etc. Pretty sure the marginal utility of Tom Brady having more money is minimal at best!
Michael Lewis tries to provide some rough estimates in the last chapter or two of "Going Infinite". From memory, his answer is more or less along the same lines as Jason's comment. Also, some of the money was stolen in hacks, and some has now gone to the bankruptcy lawyers etc.