I'm an American. I don't understand UK politics. All I know is, there was once a PM named Liz Truss. Liz did something the markets didn't like. Now PM Liz is no more.
Milton Friedman said: "Only a crisis - actual or perceived - produces real change. When that crisis occurs, the actions that are taken depend on the ideas that are lying around." I don't agree with Friedman on everything, but I like this theory of change.
Seems like PM Liz could've saved her job by letting speculators place bets conditional on her proposed policy, and only announcing its implementation if the conditional bets looked good. If we can convince the next UK government that conditional prediction markets are the best way to avoid the fate of Liz, this could be a step towards use of prediction markets to forecast the results of all kinds of UK policies on all kinds of endpoints.
Would this be a good thing?
Is there a chance I will get to see hedge funds placing bets on which UK policies will best reduce inequality or help the global poor within my lifetime?
There was no report, the OBR offered to update their forecasts to take account of the mini budget proposals but weren't asked to. Even if there was a report though, and Truss/Kwarteng read it, the fact they didn't publish it would indicate that it contradicts their course of action. That doesn't support the idea that improved forecasting would've led to better decision making.