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Wow. The Wall Street Journal just reported that, "a consortium of investors led by Elon Musk is offering $97.4 billion to buy the nonprofit that controls OpenAI."
Technically, they can't actually do that, so I'm going to assume that Musk is trying to buy all of the nonprofit's assets, which include governing control over OpenAI's for-profit, as well as all the profits above the company's profit caps.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman already tweeted, "no thank you but we will buy twitter for $9.74 billion if you want." (Musk, for his part, replied with just the word: "Swindler.")
Even if Altman were willing, it's not clear if this bid could even go through. It can probably best be understood as an attempt to throw a wrench in OpenAI's ongoing plan to restructure fully into a for-profit company. To complete the transition, OpenAI needs to compensate its nonprofit for the fair market value of what it is giving up.
In October, The Information reported that OpenAI was planning to give the nonprofit at least 25 percent of the new company, at the time, worth $37.5 billion. But in late January, the Financial Times reported that the nonprofit might only receive around $30 billion, "but a final price is yet to be determined." That's still a lot of money, but many experts I've spoken with think it drastically undervalues what the nonprofit is giving up.
Musk has sued to block OpenAI's conversion, arguing that he would be irreparably harmed if it went through.
But while Musk's suit seems unlikely to succeed, his latest gambit might significantly drive up the price OpenAI has to pay.
(My guess is that Altman will still ma
I'm not sure this is true.
Even though I disagree with Caplan on x-risks, animal rights, mental illness, free will, and a few other things, I ultimately don't think it's necessarily suspicious for him to hold the most convenient view on a broad range of topics. One can imagine two different ways of forming an ideology:
- The first way is to come up with an ideology a priori, and then interpret facts about the world in light of the ideology you've chosen. People who do this are prone to ideological biases since they're evaluating facts based partly on whether they're consistent with the
... (read more)The framing of this does indeed sound like an accusation, and I kind of agree with Matthew Barnett that if you actually asked for "comment on the general trend", Caplan would just respond that he thinks he's right on all those things and that libertarianism is simply a good ideological lens.
But I totally agree that it would be great to ask for "examples of views he holds that are most inconvenient for his politics" -- this seems like a generally interesting/underrated interview question!
Forgot mental illness, which again is suspiciously convenient, and maybe on the lower end of the plausibility spectrum among his views.