Hide table of contents

[ETA: Assume that you are the only one who gets to see the impact estimates, and that you have sworn not to directly leak any of the information you have.]

For instance, you might get impact estimates for:

  • Running X student group for a year
  • Helping make X internship, bootcamp, workshop, or retreat happen
  • Making a youtube video about X that gets Y views
  • Giving X book to Y person conditional on them Z
  • And every other meta-EA intervention you have considered/thought of

     

4

0
0

Reactions

0
0
New Answer
New Comment

1 Answers sorted by

Gut-estimate: 60 days, with a 95% chance that my gut-estimate would be between 2 and 600 days if I thought about/investigated this for another day.

Comments1
Sorted by Click to highlight new comments since:
[anonymous]1
0
0

[ETA: My thoughts here are very very tentative, and easily changed by a new consideration/datum being pointed out.]

Apparently, the Open Phil meta team was surprised by how flat the distribution of impact they measured was, and the distribution seems to only span 2-3 OOMs (importantly, this rough OOM range isn't for impact per person, which is what you would want, but the total impact of meta-EA interventions that seem like they deserve their own bucket). Though my guess is that unless you have an exceptionally good/obvious personal fit for something, the personal fit consideration leads to 0-1 OOMS, and if this is true, then it is still worth figuring out where the new projects you are considering lie on the impact distribution.

Curated and popular this week
Relevant opportunities