After about seven years, QURI is moving into maintenance mode. This means we’ll ensure that key software (Guesstimate and SquiggleHub) is maintained, but we won’t be developing new software or doing new research.

Background

I started QURI in 2019. At that point I was excited about projects at the intersection of epistemics and software, primarily to be used by impactful researchers. This seemed like a neglected and promising area.

Over the years we developed a small team and worked on a variety of projects. We’ve created multiple tech projects (Foretold, Squiggle, SquiggleHub, RoastMyPost), maintained Guesstimate, and wrote over 90 EA Forum posts. In the background, we’ve collaborated with and consulted for several EA organizations, and done work guiding the nearby forecasting and epistemic space.

The work was challenging, as one might expect. We had a small team. Full-time staff included Nuño Sempere for a few years on research, then Slava Matyuhin on software engineering for Squiggle. For the last year it’s mainly been me. I think we were fairly efficient for the team size and budget, but this naturally made it hard to move as quickly as we'd have liked.

Recently I've felt particularly constrained by compute budgets, and more concerned about short timelines. I was offered an opportunity to work on AI safety at Google DeepMind, and after a lot of deliberation, decided it represented a higher expected value for me than continuing QURI. I'll be starting there next week. 

It’s possible I’ll return to QURI full-time sometime in the future, but I consider it unlikely. I do intend to make sure our key projects get continued support, and I'm happy to advise other future projects in the space.

What happens to our projects

• Guesstimate, Squiggle Hub, and RoastMyPost will keep running. We'll cover hosting, apply security and dependency updates, and review outside contributions on a best-effort basis, but we won't be making major changes.
• Foretold.io and Metaforecast will be wound down. These haven't been functioning for some time; now we'll take steps to formally end them.

If you're particularly interested in improving, reviving, or maintaining any of these, please reach out. I continue to be excited about them, and Guesstimate and Squiggle in particular are still used by impactful researchers.

Operational details

This leaves QURI with no full-time employees. I'll remain President of the board, and we'll keep a couple of part-time contractors, but we won't be making new hires.

We have enough committed funding to cover basic maintenance - servers, software upkeep, and legal/bookkeeping - for at least four years. The apps that matter most, Guesstimate and Squiggle, are cheap and fairly simple to keep running, and I expect these costs to fall over time, so I'm not worried about sustainability.

Thanks

QURI was always a collaboration. Our funders included the Long-Term Future Fund, the Survival and Flourishing Fund, Coefficient Giving, the Foresight Institute, and several independent donors. Rethink Priorities has been our fiscal sponsor since 2023. Our board has included Ben Goldhaber, Jacob Lagerros, Andrew Critch, and Abigail Olvera, and we've had many collaborators and contractors who helped enormously. 

And of course the effective altruism and rationality communities were critical throughout - the people who used Squiggle and Guesstimate, argued with our takes, gave us feedback, and pushed the work to be better.

I remain excited about work in the nonprofit and epistemics space, and I expect to stay connected to it.

Happy to answer questions in the comments.