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We're hosting an evening where we'll play an interactive estimation game from quantifiedintuitions.com. Here's how it works: you'll face 10 questions about things you probably know very little about—like "How many piano tuners are there in Chicago?" or "What's the current population of Mongolia?"
For each question, you'll make your best guess and then state a 90% confidence interval around your estimate. The idea is simple: if you're perfectly calibrated, you should get exactly one answer wrong (since 1 out of 10 falls outside a 90% confidence interval).
It's a fun way to practice estimation, discover how well-calibrated your intuitions actually are, and see how your guesses compare to others in the group.
Anyone interested in testing their estimation skills and having fun with numbers. No prior experience or special knowledge required—the questions are specifically chosen so that nobody is expected to know the answers. This is about seeing how good your intuition is, not about having studied the topic beforehand.
Whether you're naturally curious about how to make educated guesses or just looking for an interesting evening with fellow effective altruists, you're welcome to join us.
This is hosted by Effective Altruism Hamburg - a group focused on using evidence and reason to figure out how to do the most good. New faces are always welcome!
