About a week ago, Spencer Greenberg and I were debating what proportion of Effective Altruists believe enlightenment is real. Since he has a large audience on X, we thought a poll would be a good way to increase our confidence in our predictions
Before I share my commentary, I think in hindsight it would have been better to ask the question like this: 'Do you believe that awakening/enlightenment (which frees a person from most or all suffering for extended periods, like weeks at a time) is a real phenomenon that some people achieve (e.g., through meditation)?'
I'm sure there are still better ways of framing the question.
Anyway, the results are below and I find them strange.
Here's why I find them strange:
- Many EAs believe enlightenment is real.
- Many EAs are highly focused on reducing suffering.
- Nobody is really talking about this! (i.e., it's a very neglected area)
- Sure, research might show it's not cost-effective, but 1/10 already claim to be on their way by using an app.
Comments are appreciated!
---
(1) Do you believe that awakening/enlightenment (that frees a person from all or almost all suffering) is a real thing that some people achieve (e.g., via meditation)?
(2) Would other people consider you part of the effective altruism community?
EA | Yes | 95 | 52.24% |
EA | No | 87 | 47.76% |
Not EA | Yes | 88 | 42.75% |
Not EA | No | 118 | 57.25% |
I agree that this finding is not a negative, and that including mindfulness should be a net positive for mental health interventions (especially since it'll adapt well to a lot of cultural contexts). The reason I included this null-ish result was to indicate that Vipassana-style mindfulness is unlikely to produce measurable 'enlightenment' when scaled up as an intervention—otherwise, where is it hiding in these studies? The burden of proof is with mindfulness proponents to find evidence that their method produces the superior effects they claim it does (a) when scaled up and (b) within a time-frame that would make it cost-effective.
(FWIW I think that it probably produces non-inferior effects at scale on comparable timeframes, and for some small number of the population might achieve superiority after some time with the method, but this wouldn't make it a superior candidate for a global health intervention)