Call for questions on animal-focused forecasting tournament

I love this idea! Some questions from me:

• The likelihood of cultivated meat being approved for sale in the EU?
• How many more (and ideally, which) US states will ban cultivated meat by the end of 2025, 2026 and 2027?
• What percentage of companies will follow through on their 2025 cage-free commitments?
• What percentage of companies will follow through on their 2026 BCC commitments?
• Likelihood of [insert major country here] passing legislation to ban cages
  • I would be keen to see this for the UK and also the EU but that is probably just proximity bias!
  • This could also work for other legislation e.g. banning low-welfare imports, fish stunning, etc
• The likelihood of major [insert country here] retailers committing/following through to plant protein ratios (e.g. 40% of total protein sold being plant-based by 2030)
  • Countries that come to mind for this would be UK, US and European countries like Spain, France, etc.
  • It could also be interesting to have a question on if this leads to additional fish & chicken consumption, if data is available

Some context: I work for an animal welfare-focused foundation and these are some things I've personally been interested in knowing about over the past 1-2 years!

What's the global market size [or VC invested] of the black soldier fly farming industry by [year]?

What % of [Asian, African, South American] egg supply will be covered by a cage-free commitment by [year]? What % of production will be cage-free?

What % of egg supply [in the US, China, Europe, globally] will use in ovo sexing by [year]?

In kg/capita, what's meat consumption [and/or chicken, fish, shrimp consumption, data permitting] in [US, China, Europe, globally] by [year]? How many countries will have stable or declining meat consumption?

Will [major fast food chain, e.g. McDonald's] carry a vegan option in the US by [year]? (This might be tricky to operationalise)

Maybe 2030 or 2035 for the year but I don't have a strong opinion. +1 to all of James's questions too.

Some questions from me:

Probability of blended meat options being introduced in X major restaurant chains by year Y
Level of government investment in alternative proteins by year X
Which precision fermentation / cultivated food ingredients will reach price parity of animal equivalents by year X

Submitting this question as a funder (early stage VC) that works in alt protein, and would influence areas to support and how to best help existing portfolio companies. Been working in this space for 5+ years and previously in broader animal movement as advocate.

Of less immediate practical relevance than other questions, but nonetheless interesting and not before discussed in this context (to my knowledge):

Will the first artificial conscious mind be determined to be:

1. In the form of an LLM
2. A simulation of a non-human animal brain (such as nematodes, for instance)
3. A simulation/emulation of a human brain
4. There will not be any such determination by the resolution date  (seems best to exclude this answer and have the question not resolve should this be the case, considering that it would dominate otherwise. A separate question on this would be better)

5. Other

   Also:

• Something about octopus farm prevalence/output probably
• Forecasts of overall farmed animal welfare spending for a given future year, inflation corrected. Not sure what the most current estimates are at the moment or what org would be best for resolution.
• Might be interesting to do something like "according to reputable figure X (Lewis Bollard?), what will be judged to have been the most effective animal spending on the margin over the prior 5 years". Options: Corporate campaigns, movement building, direct action, go-vegan advocacy, policy advocacy, alternative protein development, etc.