Metaculus is excited to announce the winners of the inaugural Keep Virginia Safe
Tournament [https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/vdh/]! This first-of-its kind
collaboration with the University of Virginia (UVA) Biocomplexity Institute
[https://biocomplexity.virginia.edu/] and the Virginia Department of Health
[https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/] (VDH) delivered forecasting and modeling
resources to public health professionals and public policy experts as they have
navigated critical decisions on COVID-19.
Congratulations to the top 3 prize winners!
1. Sergio [https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/115725/]
2. 2e10e122 [https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/103600/]
3. mattvdm [https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/105906/]
Thank you to forecasting community! Your predictions were integrated into VDH
planning sessions and were shared with local health department staff, statewide
epidemiologists, and even with the Virginia Governor’s office.
For more details on the tournament outcomes, visit the project summary
Our successful partnership with UVA and VDH continues through the Keep Virginia
Safe II Tournament
[https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/keep-virginia-safe-ii/], where Metaculus
forecasts continue to provide valuable information
Join to help protect Virginians and compete for $20,000 in prizes.
Find more information about the Keep Virginia Safe Tournament, including the
complete leaderboard, here [https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/vdh/].
Could the latent effects of Covid worsen AI alignment efforts and/or other
This is very much a 'I suspect (and hope) I'm wrong' question, but I thought it
was still worth checking the rationale for this not being seen as a major issue.
Essentially, is it likely that the long-term and latent effects of Covid on
cognitive performance could significantly damage global responses to x-risks?
With a studies finding cognitive decline
[https://alz-journals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/alz.12644] and brain
shrinkage after even mild Covid infections (with IQ drops higher than stroke
patients in some severe cases) and Omicron variants, though less deadly,
apparently still causing greater brain apoptosis
[https://www.nature.com/articles/s41392-022-01241-2] (of many previously healthy
cells) than previous variants, is it possible that mass infection could be
causing some level of general cognitive decline? Or, if this is happening, to
some extent, to most people, with mass infection, are we not even noticing the
extent of this decline?
If so, even if this is a pretty small or even negligible decline in most cases,
if the raw ability to handle cognitive complexity is an important aspect of
making effective political decisions, could small (and therefore particularly
unnoticed) but en masse cognitive declines be enough to negatively tip the
balance in responses to existing x-risks?
Add in potential further declines from repeat infections and cumulative damage,
and might key political decision-makers have unrecognised, biologically worsened
responses to AI policy during a crucial period for the field?
Equally, could this affect responses to other, perhaps previously more
manageable risks? E.g. for nuclear risks, with admittedly arbitrary numbers, if
each year has a 1% pre-Covid risk of nuclear war, if Covid-related cognitive
decline shifted this risk to even something like 1.1% per year, even small risk
increases could still be significant for such a