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Long-range forecasting

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Parent Topic: Forecasting
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Posts tagged Long-range forecasting

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121
Data on forecasting accuracy across different time horizons and levels of forecaster experience
Charles Dillon
· 3y ago · 28m read
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The Epistemic Challenge to Longtermism (Tarsney, 2020)
MichaelA
· 3y ago · 2m read
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[Link] "How feasible is long-range forecasting?" (Open Phil)
Milan_Griffes
· 5y ago · 1m read
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Christian Tarsney: Can we predictably improve the far future?
EA Global
· 5y ago · 1m read
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Christian Tarsney on future bias and a possible solution to moral fanaticism
Pablo
· 3y ago · 1m read
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Superforecasting in a nutshell
lukeprog
· 3y ago · 3m read
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What important questions are missing from Metaculus?
Q
Charles Dillon
· 3y ago · 1m read
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Scoring forecasts from the 2016 “Expert Survey on Progress in AI”
PatrickL
· 1y ago · 10m read
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A personal take on longtermist AI governance
lukeprog
· 3y ago · 8m read
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Survey on AI existential risk scenarios
Sam Clarke
· 3y ago · 8m read
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A practical guide to long-term planning – and suggestions for longtermism
weeatquince
· 3y ago · 30m read
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Formalising the "Washing Out Hypothesis"
dwebb
· 3y ago · 15m read
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[Linkpost] Dan Luu: Futurist prediction methods and accuracy
Linch
· 2y ago · 5m read
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Predicting Open Phil Grants
Charles Dillon
· 3y ago · 2m read
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Overview of Rethink Priorities’ work on risks from nuclear weapons
MichaelA
· 3y ago · 4m read
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