Interesting, I don't think I noticed that trend between 10 years ago and 2 years ago. 

Cool!

I agree that in deciding how much to prioritise averting extinction vs improving worlds in which we persist, it's important to think about the difference in value between (non-existence)(default survival)(actual utopia). But that argument has been around a long while. I think Ben Garfinkel was advancing the idea that (actual utopia) - (default survival) might be much larger than (default survival) - (non-existence) in the late 2010s. I'm interested in what's changed that's affected discourse. It's possible the answer is 'more people have read arguments of this form'. But in that case people who had already read those arguments should update less than if the change is eg us getting more info about how difficult alignment is.

Interesting that you don't come across many people these days who still identify as longtermist, that's pretty different from my experience. I think it feels more intuitive to me to identify as 'longtermist' than 'effective altruist'. The former is a claim about my values (people in the future matter morally) whereas the latter is behavioural and feels presumptuous (how altruistic really am I? Am I effective at it even when I try?). But I guess I'm in the minority on that!

I was intending to pick out a group of people who have for years identified as EAs and longtermists but have changed what they've worked on. I was thinking it was clear in talking about EAs deprioritising a thing that I meant the ones who prioritised that highly initially, but I see how that's confusing - I'll edit to clarify. 

Good point, thanks!

Thanks for the links!

Thank you - in a world that does often feel scary and full of suffering, it's inspiring to remember what we can and have so far achieved. 

Better luck next time

"And the reason EA will be great again is that the best EAs, of which there are many, all want to be EAs. It’s in their bones. If they weren’t staring down the barrel of an intelligence explosion, or if the prospect of transformative AI somehow disappears with relative certainty, they would open their Animal Welfare for Dummies books the next day. Or they’d roll up their sleeves to defend America. Some of them are doing these things now. The point is that the EAs are ready to do what’s right with no fuss and no ego. Believe it or not, that’s what AI safety work entailed just seven or eight years ago."
<3 

"The reader will note that I am not the best of us."
The reader notes that one day you'll have to stop pretending, and grudgingly admit that you are.

"the way we’ll know EA is really winning is when the Oxford crew is wholly eclipsed by a new generation of even more ambitious and clear-thinking altruists"
Amen

You have such a way with words.

Really glad to be able to help, at least a little. As you say, we're in this together.