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AI Use Note: Main body text entirely human written. Claude (Opus 4.8) helped develop models of animal life histories in the appendix.
Cross-posted from Good Structures.
Executive Summary
* Animal advocates sometimes make claims like “there are X of this animal...
“How long have you been v*g*n?”
This is one of the most common icebreakers at animal protection events. It’s a baseline assumption, and it mostly holds true: if you’re out advocating for animals not to be tortured or abused, realistically these days you are v**n, or close. And it makes for good conversation. It seems fairly safe to assume when you meet strangers.
But this assumption is hurting the movement in a way which we don’t always notice: someone new comes into the sp...
Summary
Back in November 2023 I posted here to launch Spiro and raise our first $198k. Two and a half years later this is an update and a fundraiser for the next step.
The short version: we've now reached over-5,900 people with TB preventive medicine, including over 3,000 children under five years old. Our early results have held up well an...
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Millett and Snyder-Beattie's (2017) 'Existential Risk and Cost-Effective Biosecurity' is good for back of the envelope calculations on GCBRs: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5576214/
I can't be sure this is the paper I'm remembering but it looks pretty good - Bernstein et al. (2022) find that activities to prevent zoonotic pandemics save lives for a cost roughly comparable to top Givewell charities (I get this from their claim of saving lives at less than 1/20th of the low-end of the value of a statistical life, which they say is ~$107,000 - though beware unequal application of rigour). This estimate does not include economic losses due to a pandemic. https://www.science.org/doi/full/10.1126/sciadv.abl4183
And more indirectly, if you wanted to make your own back-of-the-envelopes, Marani et al. (2021) provide a well grounded probability estimate to work with (though the historical record would not be reliable for emerging risks from biotechnology): https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2105482118
Thanks for the sources, Ben! I have used them in this post I have just published:
Thanks Ben!
No worries! Although these were just ones I remembered off the cuff - I'm sure there's other good ones you could find