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Good sign.
Still has to go through a lot of negotiations and industry will obviously seek to water it down by claiming it's not economically feasible to do at all, or at least anytime soon. Also see the secondary Metaculus question- conditional on the European Union agreeing to ban cages, when will the phase out for cages end?

Leaked EU Draft Proposes Substantial Animal Welfare Improvements

by Ben_West🔸

Apr 21 20231 min read 10

126

Animal welfarePolicyEuropean Union

Frontpage

This is a linkpost for https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/news/draft-impact-assessment-good-start-ambitious-legislation

Phase out of cages for all species
Increase space allowance for all species
Ban the systematic culling of male chicks
Introduce welfare requirements for the stunning of farmed fish
Ban cruel slaughter practices like water baths and CO2 for poultry and pigs
Ban mutilations, like beak trimming, tail docking, dehorning or surgical castration of pigs
Limited journey times for the transport of animals destined to slaughter
Apply the EU’s standards to imported animal products in a way that is compatible with WTO rules

It claims the document was leaked by Agra Facts, which is a subscription service I don't have access to. Confirmation of what was actually included from someone who has access to the underlying document would be appreciated.

Metaculus forecast for the cage free portion:

Previous discussion:

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Ariel Simnegar 🔸Apr 22 202311

That's incredible, if it's a true leak. I assume the prior for leaks of this kind being true should be quite high? There doesn't seem to be much incentive for anyone to create and distribute a false leak of animal welfare standards.

Neil_Dullaghan🔹 Apr 22 20238

Duarte MApr 27 20235

This is really fantastic news overall! 👏

Not sure on the dehorning and beak trimming though, that sounds like virtue signalling more so than an evidence based policy.

BellaApr 24 20235

Wow.

Banning CO2 slaughter and mutilations seems... way ahead of anything I would have guessed might happen soon. I would've guessed that at least a ban on dehorning is way outside the range of plausible things that would be done for animal welfare.

BellaApr 24 202313

Are we worried beak trimming ban is net neg? Because of increased pecking/deaths from cannibalism & infected wounds.

Drew MagnessApr 27 20239

Seems net-neg. Research here using 10 commercial farms who each kept a flock of beak-trimmed hens and non-beak-trimmed hens.

"omitting beak trimming had negative consequences for the condition of plumage, skin, and keel bone, and tended to increase mortality, highlighting the risk of reduced welfare when keeping layers with intact beaks."

Duarte MApr 27 20237

Not sure dehorning would be a good thing considering the deaths and mutilations caused by animals using their horns.

Constance LiApr 23 20231

This is amazing! Thank you so much for sharing this. I agree with Ariel that there is not much incentive to leak fake animal welfare standard changes so this is very promising. This seems like a great time for groups in other countries to ride off the momentum and take the opportunity to create higher and more uniform welfare standards internationally.

Constance LiApr 25 20233

Further evidence that the leak is genuine. The alleged new standards are consistent with recent known statements from the EU.

rimeApr 24 20230

No way. I had started doubting the whole "arc bends towards justice" thing, but it just bends slowly. Too slowly for the animals being tortured to death right now, and it's not really "justice" as long as the systematic perpetrators aren't made to face up to it somehow, but ok, I won't be fussy about it as long as the trajectory gets us to where we need to be.