It's been at least a few months since the last proper EA scandals, and we're now desperately trying to squeeze headlines out of the past ones.
On the contrary, a few scandals have been wrapped up:
- SBF was sentenced to 25 years in prison
- The investigation regarding Owen Cotton-Barratt presented its findings
- Whytham Abbey is being sold
Indeed, even OpenPhil's involvement in the Whytham Abbey sale shows they're now less willing to fund new scandals.
Therefore it seems to me that EA is now neither funding- nor talent-constrained, but rather scandal-constrained.
This cannot go on. We've all become accustomed to a neverending stream of scandals, and if that stream dwindles, we might find ourselves bored to death - or worse, the world might stop talking about EA all the time.
I therefore raise a few ideas for discussion - feel free to add your own:
- EA Funds should open a new Scandal Fund to create a continuous supply.
- CEA's community health team should hire a person to look harder for scandals lying under the surface.
- Nick Bostrom should publish a book.
- EA should work harder on encouraging group housing of people with their bosses, preferably in secluded areas abroad.
If so, it seems plausible we should optimise for the very largest scandals, rather than simply producing a large volume of less impactful scandals.
Donating to SBF's appeal process may be the highest impact charity we have ever seen.
In randomized controlled trials from 2022, SBF had donated over 130 million dollars in less than a year, and a successful appeal would counterfactually create this benefit for 25 years. An expensive criminal trial in the US can cost as much as $15,000. Even if $15k increases the odds of winning the appeal by 0.1%, that is still an expected 217x amplification of every dollar donated.
The money amplified goes in to effective charities like GiveWell, so if we use GiveWell's one life saved per $4,500 measure, donating to SBF's appeal fund would save a life for every 20 dollars.
This is just a back of the napkin calculation, so my numbers might be off a little, but this seems to be the most effective charity by *many* orders of magnitude.