Note: This started as a quick take, but it got too long so I made it a full post. It's still kind of a rant; a stronger post would include sources and would have gotten feedback from people more knowledgeable than I. But in the spirit of Draft Amnesty Week, I'm writing this in one sitting and smashing that Submit button.
Many people continue to refer to companies like OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google DeepMind as "frontier AI labs". I think we should drop "labs" entirely when discussing these companies, calling them "AI companies"[1] instead. While these companies may have once been primarily research laboratories, they are no longer so. Continuing to call them labs makes them sound like harmless groups focused on pushing the frontier of human knowledge, when in reality they are profit-seeking corporations focused on building products and capturing value in the marketplace.
Laboratories do not directly publish software products that attract hundreds of millions of users and billions in revenue. Laboratories do not hire armies of lobbyists to control the regulation of their work. Laboratories do not compete for tens of billions in external investments or announce many-billion-dollar capital expenditures in partnership with governments both foreign and domestic.
People call these companies labs due to some combination of marketing and historical accident. To my knowledge no one ever called Facebook, Amazon, Apple, or Netflix "labs", despite each of them employing many researchers and pushing a lot of genuine innovation in many fields of technology.
To be clear, there are labs inside many AI companies, especially the big ones mentioned above. There are groups of researchers doing research at the cutting edge of various fields of knowledge, in AI capabilities, safety, governance, etc. Many individuals (perhaps some readers of this very post!) would be correct in saying they work at a lab inside a frontier AI company. It's just not the case that any of these companies as
Normally I'd say yes, but my AGI timelines are now 50% in ~4 years, so there isn't much time for R&D to make a difference. I'd recommend interventions that pay off quickly, therefore. Bed nets, GiveDirectly, etc.
I think that the recent 80,000 Hours Podcast on high-impact climate philanthropy discusses this. See this section in the transcript, potentially.
And there's also this recent sequence (e.g. one post is about Estimating the cost-effectiveness of previous R&D projects).
Great post!
R&D about health in slums may be promising and neglected:
"Importance: Approximately 1 billion people currently live in slums, and it is estimated that a quarter of the world’s population will live in a slum by 2030. Slum conditions currently do not support a healthy or high-quality life. This is a very important issue. Tractability: Slum policy interventions appear relatively intractable. In contrast, In situ slum upgrading interventions largely deliver cost-effective results, but more research is needed.
[...]
As slums grow at an alarming rate, a better understanding of problems uniquely faced by slum populations is required. For this to happen, governments must consider slums as spatial entities and collect more extensive census data, while academia may contribute by focusing research directly on slum health."
Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/sgkvhJLFMDzBPgovp/shallow-investigation-slums