Or on the types of prioritization, their strengths, pitfalls, and how EA should balance them
The cause prioritization landscape in EA is changing. Prominent groups have shut down, others have been founded, and everyone is trying to figure out how to prepare for AI. This is the first in a series of posts examining the state of cause prioritization and proposing strategies for moving forward.
Executive Summary
* Performing prioritization work has been one of the main tasks, and arguably achievements, of EA.
* We highlight three types of prioritization: Cause Prioritization, Within-Cause (Intervention) Prioritization, and Cross-Cause (Intervention) Prioritization.
* We ask how much of EA prioritization work falls in each of these categories:
* Our estimates suggest that, for the organizations we investigated, the current split is 89% within-cause work, 2% cross-cause, and 9% cause prioritization.
* We then explore strengths and potential pitfalls of each level:
* Cause prioritization offers a big-picture view for identifying pressing problems but can fail to capture the practical nuances that often determine real-world success.
* Within-cause prioritization focuses on a narrower set of interventions with deeper more specialised analysis but risks missing higher-impact alternatives elsewhere.
* Cross-cause prioritization broadens the scope to find synergies and the potential for greater impact, yet demands complex assumptions and compromises on measurement.
* See the Summary Table below to view the considerations.
* We encourage reflection and future work on what the best ways of prioritizing are and how EA should allocate resources between the three types.
* With this in mind, we outline eight cruxes that sketch what factors could favor some types over others.
* We also suggest some potential next steps aimed at refining our approach to prioritization by exploring variance, value of information, tractability, and the
I appreciate that the new initiative is also a stealth reference to Star Trek -- "The Next Generation" being the sequel series to original Star Trek just like this is the sequel to Operation Warp Speed. Makes it seem like there are some live players in the White House fighting for what would really do the most for pandemic preparedness, instead of just optimizing for whatever "looks good" in an HHS funding package.
Sad, of course, to see the usual total lack of recognition that in addition to subsidizing production, it would also help advance medical progress if we made production/innovation easier by reforming onerous and way-too-slow FDA processes.
In addition to the pan-coronavirus vaccine effort, I also appreciate the funding for mucosal vaccines that would be easier/more pleasant to administer (no needles that scare people and create anti-vax sentiment, just a friendly nasal spray), and would do more to stop transmission of the virus between people, as opposed to just preventing severe illness and death.
Credit to folks like Alex Tabarrok at Marginal Revolution (and many, many others throughout government, pharma, EA, etc) who throughout the pandemic advocated for neglected good ideas like these. Maybe someday we will even see important FDA reforms, funding for metagenomic sequencing to identify early new pandemics, bans on dangerous gain-of-function-style research, and etc! (https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2022/04/an-operation-warp-speed-for-nasal-vaccines.html)